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07-10-2026
By Bob Koigi | Channel: artificial-intelligence
| Tags: Africa
Artificial Intelligence
Economy
Import Export Trading
Market Research
Sub Saharan Africa
Tech
AI boom boosts Sub-Saharan Africa trade
Global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the past 15 years, excluding the exceptional post-pandemic rebound.
The global AI buildout has become a major driver of international trade, helping goods trade expand despite tariffs, geopolitical tensions and disruption to key shipping routes, according to the latest DHL Globalization Tracker from DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business.
Sub-Saharan Africa recorded strong growth, with the value of its trade increasing 11 percent in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.
AI infrastructure drives global goods trade growth
Demand for goods used to build AI infrastructure, including semiconductors and data-transmission equipment, was a major contributor to the increase. According to WTO and OECD analysis cited in the report, AI-enabling goods accounted for 42 percent of goods trade growth in 2025, rising to 76 percent in the first quarter of 2026.
John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express: “The biggest story in global trade right now is AI, not tariffs. Every AI query ultimately depends on logistics. Chips, networking equipment and the many other goods behind this technology must be in the right place at the right time. DHL connects the businesses and markets behind these complex supply chains. Whenever innovation creates new trade flows, our global network helps keep them moving.”
Global trade outlook strengthens despite disruptions
The Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted major trade routes, although the report says the impact remained concentrated among economies that depend heavily on the waterway. Trade values fell 37 percent in Saudi Arabia and 7 percent in the United Arab Emirates during the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.
U.S. tariffs also created pressure on global trade, reaching their highest levels in decades. The report says their wider effect was limited partly because the U.S. accounted for 13 percent of global imports in recent years, with roughly half of those imports exempt from tariff increases as of August 2026. Many countries also pursued alternative markets and trade agreements instead of broad retaliation.
Global trade forecast exceeds previous decade
Global goods trade is forecast to grow by an average of 3.4 percent annually through 2029, above the 2.7 percent average recorded during the previous decade.
Steven A. Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management: “The surprise is not only that global trade kept growing through new tariffs and the Iran war. The outlook is now stronger than it was before either shock. This reminds us to look beyond the most visible disruptions and recognize the deeper reasons why trade remains so resilient. The AI trade boom highlights the demand for goods and services that can only be provided efficiently when specialized producers work together across countries. It also shows how companies continually adapt to keep trade moving through disruptions and policy shifts.”
Sub-Saharan Africa records 11 percent trade growth
East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest regional trade growth, with trade value rising 24 percent in the first five months of 2026. Europe followed at 12 percent, while Sub-Saharan Africa recorded 11 percent growth.
Hennie Heymans, CEO of DHL Express Sub-Saharan Africa: “The narrative around Africa often focuses on challenges. What this data shows is that trade across the region continues to grow, even amid geopolitical uncertainty and market disruption. That’s a strong signal of the resilience of <a href="https://absafricatv.com/the-north-african-people-with-a-forgotten-christian-heritage/” title=”The North African people with a forgotten Christian heritage”>African businesses and the growing connections between African markets and the rest of the world. The next step is making sure more SMEs can access those opportunities and grow beyond their home markets.”
East Asia and the Pacific also increased the proportion of trade conducted within the region, from 57 percent in 2025 to 60 percent in the first five months of 2026. The report links the shift partly to Asian supply chains supporting AI infrastructure demand.
US-China trade links weaken without global split
The report identifies a significant decline in direct trade ties between the US and China but finds limited evidence of a broader division of the global economy into rival blocs.
US-China trade accounted for 3.5 percent of global trade at its peak in 2015, falling to 1.6 percent during the first five months of 2026. The two countries represented less than 1 percent of international business investment. At the same time, US allies have largely maintained their economic relationships with China.
The report also finds that direct trade figures do not fully capture US reliance on Chinese inputs. Goods imported into the US from third countries contain increasing amounts of Chinese materials and components. Including these indirect imports, US reliance on China had declined only slightly through 2024, the latest year covered by the analysis.
Globalization reaches record level
The DHL Globalization Tracker estimates that globalization reached a record level of 25.8 percent in 2025. The measure assesses international flows of trade, capital, information and people on a scale from 0 percent, representing no cross-border flows, to 100 percent, where borders and distance have no effect.
All four categories contributed to the record level. Information flows remain the most internationalised, followed by capital and trade, while people flows remain the least globalised.
The DHL Globalization Tracker, commissioned by DHL and authored by Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian of NYU Stern School of Business, analyses more than 30 million data points from more than 25 public, private and academicedness Tracker, with the underlying scope and methodology unchanged
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