More humanoid robots are entering factories, as costs fall and ROI ramps up. (Image created via ChatGPT)
Humanoid robots are shifting from research labs and prototype demonstrations, to early commercial deployment, with automotive manufacturing and logistics emerging as the sectors forecast to drive large-scale adoption over the next decade.
According to a report from research firm IDTechEx, the global humanoid robot market across automotive, logistics and home-use applications is forecast to grow rapidly through the early 2030s. It is expected to reach about $25 billion in the next decade, before growth begins to moderate as the sector matures toward 2036.
The findings are contained in the report titled: “Humanoid robots: Market, technologies and opportunities 2026-2036”.
According to the report, humanoid robots are moving from prototype validation toward early commercial deployment, with automotive manufacturing and logistics expected to form the core demand base over the next decade.
“Annual shipments of humanoid robots are projected to approach 1.8 million units by 2036, driven primarily by automotive manufacturing, with logistics following and home-use remaining a longer-term opportunity,” reveals the report.
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“Several factors are accelerating market momentum, including the growing push toward Industry 5.0, advances in embodied artificial intelligence (AI), improving materials and component supply chains, and continued backing from investors and OEMs.
The report finds that industrial environments, such as automotive manufacturing, provide the clearest path to commercialisation because they offer more standardised workflows, clearer task boundaries and stronger labour-cost pressures than highly-unstructured environments.
“This is supported by the accelerating push toward Industry 5.0, rapid progress in embodied AI, continuous improvements in materials and component supply chains, and sustained strategic backing from investors and OEMs,” the report states.
“Compared with open or highly-unstructured environments, industrial settings such as automotive manufacturing offer more standardised workflows, clearer task boundaries and stronger labour-cost pressure.”
IDTechEx believes these conditions make automotive manufacturing and logistics the most realistic near-term deployment opportunities for humanoid robots.
The report also points to rapidly-declining hardware costs as a key factor in improving the business case for humanoid robot adoption.
According to IDTechEx analysis, the average selling price of humanoid robots is expected to decline from roughly $114 700 in 2024, to about $37 000 by 2030, with additional cost reductions expected into the mid-2030s.
“As capital costs decline, the cost per productive hour falls accordingly, with the most significant reductions occurring during the early stages of commercialisation. While cost reduction is a necessary condition for adoption, this alone is not a sufficient reason to adopt.”
The report notes that unlike fixed automation systems, humanoid robots operate in environments where productivity can vary significantly, depending on task type, workflow structure, environmental complexity and the level of systems integration.
Because of this variability, IDTechEx modelled high-, medium- and low-utilisation deployment scenarios to better reflect real-world operating conditions.
Based on interviews with industry participants and amortisation modelling across commercial deployment scenarios, IDTechEx says it believes operating costs could fall below $5 per hour by around 2030 in high-utilisation industrial settings.
“At the current early-commercialisation stage, costs remain highly-sensitive to utilisation, task continuity and integration quality,” the report explains.
“However, as enterprise procurement prices decline and deployment experience improves, high-utilisation industrial scenarios could bring operating costs below $5/hour by around 2030.”
The report points out the economics become increasingly attractive when compared with rising labour costs in markets such as the US, while China’s labour costs are also expected to rise from a lower base over time.
However, IDTechEx cautions that robot operating costs are not directly comparable with human labour costs because achieving those efficiencies depends heavily on utilisation rates, operational stability and workflow continuity.
“In medium- or low-utilisation settings, the cost advantage can be significantly reduced even as hardware prices fall. In other words, the cost curve is improving, but whether the cost advantage can be realised depends strongly on the deployment environment,” notes the report.
