As the war initiated by the US / Israel against Iran continues with Iran attacking US bases and interests in the Gulf, Kasirim Nwuke recaps events, looks at the impact on African economies and warns that Africa could be next on the empirical march.
On the 28th February, the tenth day of the 2026 Ramadan season, in the early hours of the day, the United States of America and its ally, the State of Israel, launched a coordinated attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran.
This happened a day after the Omani Foreign Minister gave an interview to US television, affirming that negotiations (mediated by Oman) between the US and Iran on the latter’s nuclear programme were going well and that peace was within reach. The attack sent shock waves across the world.
This was not a surprise attack. Iran has spent the last 47 years since the overthrow of the Shah in 1979 preparing for war with ‘The Great Satan’ as it has labelled the US. On the 28th of February, Iran, unlike during the 12-day war, retaliated immediately. And yet another war in the Middle East began.
Iran struck not only targets in Israel but also US bases in many of the US-allied countries that surround it. At the end of the day, the US and Israel announced that they had decapitated the leadership of the Islamic Republic, that the Supreme Leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had been killed.
Iran, perhaps respectful of the Islamic tradition of burying the dead within 48hours of death, had to acknowledge and announce the death of its Supreme Leader.
In the immediate aftermath of the outbreak of hostilities, Iran announced that it was closing the Strait of Hormuz for all ships except Russian and Chinese ships. The Strait is very critical for the global economy. It is estimated that between 20-30% of global oil and gas is shipped through the Strait. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), about 20 million barrels of oil transited through the Strait of Hormuz each day in 2024.
On 28 February, about an hour after the commencement of the coordinated US-Israeli strikes on Iran, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard began to broadcast messages via standard VHF channels to merchant vessels in the Persian Gulf, stating that transit through the Strait of Hormuz was not permitted.
Iran is able to threaten the closing of the Strait because it is not a signatory to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Oman, which controls the southern part of the Strait, is. According to the same report, by March 1, over 70% of shipping had been suspended or rerouted from the Hormuz. Oil prices have already risen since Iran announced its intention to close the Strait.
This was not because Iran laid mines or blockaded the Strait; it was simply a result of an assessment of risk by shippers and insurers. Clearly, most found the risk unacceptable. Insurance coverage might be repriced (premiums may go up) based on perceptions of actuarial risk; an increase in premiums could result in withdrawal of insurance cover for ships that cannot afford to pay.
Ships are rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, South Africa, because Iran’s allies, the Yemeni Houthis, have announced that they will close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea to US and Israeli ships. The consequences of Iran’s retaliatory strikes for global trade, oil prices, and inflation could, in the end, be very high.
Harm to world trade
But closing the Strait of Hormuz is perhaps not the only ordnance in Iran’s arsenal to do great harm to world trade. Reports yesterday suggested that Iran shelled wealthy suburbs of Dubai and some key infrastructure.
Since Iran is focused on targeting and shelling US assets in the region and US oil and gas companies are significant players in the Gulf countries, it could direct some of its missiles, drones and other firepower at US oil and gas assets in those countries.
The objective seems to be to pressure them, to impose high cost on them and their regional allies to force them try to restrain Trump and Netanyahu. (Iran can justify such a posture by invoking reports that the Saudi Prince Mohamed Ben Salman encouraged Trump to strike, as well as the fact that Dubai / UAE hold loads of Trump assets.) If Iran does this, it will be a very frightening dimension to the war, which will be dangerous for world trade in oil and gas.
Is it possible for Iran to push the war in this direction? It seems likely. All the oil and gas facilities in the Gulf are within reach of Iran’s ballistic missiles. They are also located in regions of these countries that are predominantly Shia Muslim – Iran’s national faith – who feel oppressed and suppressed by the Sunni majorities of the Gulf states.
Similarly main oil fields and ports are within range of Iran’s short-range missile (or even artillery!), especially from Iran’s coast. If Gulf Shia countries rise in solidarity with Iran, and in cahoots with Iran, begin to attack, sabotage and destroy oil and gas assets, the adverse effect on the global economy could be more devastating and last longer than the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.
The next several days will reveal whether oil and gas markets will price this additional risk in. If they do, oil prices will rise significantly in the next several weeks, and affect the US summer driving season and possibly voter sentiments heading into the US mid-term elections in November.
If Trump responds to the possible electoral damage that rising gas prices could present to Republican candidates in November by limiting energy exports, Europe could be in big trouble, given the sanctions it has placed on the import of Russian oil and gas.
Asia, too, will be affected, and African countries will import any inflation arising from these risks through their principal trading partners.
Who is next after Iran?
Further, should these things happen, Africa’s net oil and gas importers will be hit very, very hard. With ODA and all forms of aid largely cut off and the debt crisis a constant threat, Africa’s net oil-importing countries with little or no fiscal space could be pushed into very difficult conditions.
The possible adverse economic impact aside, African countries will be foolish to think or believe that their sovereignty is not under threat, that they will escape Trump-Netanyahu. Once Trump and Netanyahu are convinced that they have defeated and completely pacified Iran, they will next turn their attention to the next item offering on the menu.
Which country will it be? The gobbling up and emasculation began with Lebanon / Palestine. Then Syria, Venezuela, Greenland (still hanging), and now Iran. Who is next? I strongly suspect that Africa is next.
US-Israeli foreign policy under the Trump-Netanyahu ‘Dvoika’ is like a palimpsest – peel off a few layers and what you find from the past is nothing different from the present – it is a policy of imperial grab, aggression, and subjugation.
President Trump, soon after Venezuela, signalled unequivocally that other countries are on the menu to receive the Maduro treatment – decapitation. Cuba is probably next. But the armada assembled against Iran must find a new location, a new object of interest. It will and must move.
South Africa will be next. Israel has already indicated through a blog that appeared in the Times of Israel on 2 January 2026, but largely ignored by African media, that it would like to see Africa further fragmented, beginning with South Africa.
With a US base in Botswana, South Africa probably has very little chance of countering any combined US-Israeli aggression. Its internal divisions are deep, especially along racial lines. White secessionists: Orania, Cape Independence Movement, Boervolk of the Orange Free State present opportunities and excuses for the Dvoika. And the country’s fairly long coastline, a resource and a blessing, will be difficult to defend. South Africa may come to rue the day it dismantled its nuclear facilities and nuclear weapons infrastructure.
Nigeria, weakened by unfathomable levels of corruption and dishonest conversations on her internal contradictions, has already surrendered, without firing a shot in defence of her sovereignty or uttering a whimper in protest. Somalia and Somaliland may be a brief stop on the way to South Africa (neither Turkey nor Egypt will come to Somalia’s aid if the US and Israel station a small part of the armada off the coast of Mogadishu to force Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and his friends in Villa Somalia to recognise the independence of Somaliland.
Africa’s response should be simple: begin now to ‘scream’ at the top of her voice to mobilise African public opinion. Seek concrete alliances with Russia and China, and get under their nuclear umbrella if they have sufficient spare room to accommodate us. And above all, consolidate, merge, form larger countries.
Fifty-four Europe-created countries are too many. Small is beautiful. But not in the Age of Empire. While the process of merger may take long, think in the interim of creating a continental armed forces, investing heavily in science, technology and innovation and in developing an African defence industry.
But above all, mobilise African society, the consciousness of Africans from Cape to Cairo, from Ras Hafun to Almides (Cape Vert). Mobilise like the future of the continent, her peoples and resources depend on it. Because it does.
The time to do these things, to take these actions, was yesterday. But doing them now, taking the actions today, is not too late. The reality of the resurgence of ‘might is right’ stares Africans and African countries in the face. They do not need Nnamdi Azikiwe, Kwame Nkrumah, Emperor Haile Selassie, Nyerere, Nasser, Ben Bella or indeed Bob Marley to rise from their graves to scream ‘Africa, Unite’. The time requires new leadership and new leaders.
As Ndi Igbo of Nigeria say, “Igwe bụ ike”– unity, acting together as one, collective action, is more powerful and provides greater assurance of success, security and protection than acting alone. The world’s most powerful cat, the lion, hunts in prides. The time to act as one is now.
Kasirim Nwuke, with more than 25 years of professional experience, holds a PhD in economics and writes and comments on African and global affairs.
