Gustav Muller is a Professor of Law, Faculty of Law, University of Johannesburg
He recently published an opinion article that first appeared in the News24 on 18 May 2026.
South Africans are once again confronting sharp increases in fuel prices, with the effects already visible across many other facets of everyday life. South Africa is more vulnerable to fuel shocks than it needs to be. As global tensions choke off supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow point between the Sultanate of Oman’s Musandam Peninsula and the Islamic Republic of Iran, local motorists are feeling the consequences immediately at the pump. But crises of this kind do more than expose weakness. They create a narrow, strategic window to correct it.
The current fuel price shock is one such moment. The state, through the Central Energy Fund (CEF) and the Strategic Fuel Fund (SFF), has both the legal mandate in terms of the Central Energy Fund Act 38 of 1977 and the physical infrastructure to turn short-term disruption into long-term resilience. The problem is not capacity – it is utilisation.
Start with what we already have. It is widely reported that South Africa holds only about eight million barrels of crude oil in storage at Saldanha Bay in the Western Cape. Yet the SFF controls two storage tanks, each capable of holding 7.5 million barrels, reserved specifically for domestic strategic reserves. This leaves seven million barrels of capacity sitting unused at a time when global supply is under strain and domestic prices are rising.
This is not merely a technical oversight. It reflects a deeper institutional hesitancy that has lingered since the Oilgate scandal of 2016, when approximately ten million barrels of crude oil were sold at a heavily discounted price. A decade later, the consequence appears to be caution at precisely the moment when decisiveness is required.
There is no compelling reason why strategic storage capacity reserved for national use should not be full during a volatile global environment. Filling those reserves would not eliminate price shocks, but it would provide the state with a critical buffer – one that could be deployed to stabilise supply and soften the blow to consumers.
But the opportunity extends beyond domestic reserves. Four additional storage tanks at Saldanha Bay – with a cumulative capacity of thirty million barrels – are designated for third-party commercial use. They are reportedly standing empty. This is a missed economic and strategic opportunity of considerable scale.
South Africa’s geographic position at the southern tip of Africa places it at a natural crossroads of global maritime trade. In a period of geopolitical uncertainty, secure storage outside traditional chokepoints becomes more valuable as a physical resilience asset in the transport sector, not less. The CEF and SFF should be actively leveraging this advantage by securing international partners to utilise these facilities.
More than that, the moment calls for expansion, not stagnation. The Saldanha-Northern Cape development corridor, already identified as a Strategic Infrastructure Project in the Infrastructure Development Act 23 of 2014, provides a ready-made framework for scaling storage capacity and completing critical infrastructure such as the liquified petroleum gas pipeline to the new Avedia Energy facility in terms of the Petroleum Pipelines Act 60 of 2003. These are not abstract ambitions. They are designated priorities within the state’s own infrastructure planning architecture and regulatory framework.
If South Africa does not move now, it risks forfeiting both economic opportunity and strategic relevance.
Yet resilience is not only a matter for the state. It must also extend to individuals. Recent data from Discovery Insure indicates a 35 per cent reduction in fuel use during April 2026, driven by sharply rising prices. Consumers are already adapting their behaviour in response to cost pressures. The question is whether policy action can support that adaptation in a way that enhances resilience rather than merely reflecting hardship.
Here, too, the state has tools at its disposal. The Equalisation Fund – partially financed through levies on fuel – may be used not only to offset increases in the cost of crude oil, but also for a broader range of interventions relating to the storage, distribution and use of petroleum products.
A portion of these funds could be directed towards subsidising the purchase of compliant metal fuel containers (SANS 10089-1), enabling households to store limited quantities of fuel safely when prices are lower. This would not only provide short-term relief but also introduce a modest form of price buffering at the household level. Coupled with a national public awareness campaign on safe fuel storage, such a measure could enhance individual resilience without imposing significant fiscal strain.
This is what a layered approach to energy resilience looks like. At the level of the state, it requires the full utilisation and expansion of strategic storage capacity, coupled with a willingness to engage dispersed global partners. At the level of infrastructure, it demands the acceleration of projects that have already been identified as nationally significant. And at the level of the individual, it calls for practical interventions that enable households to respond more effectively to price volatility.
In conceptual terms, this is the difference between what might be called self-regarding and other-regarding resilience: the capacity of the state to build trust in its own fuctionaries, and the capacity it affords individuals to protect themselves within that system. South Africa has the legal authority. It has the institutional framework. And it has the physical infrastructure. What it requires now is coordinated, decisive action.
The CEF and SFF should move urgently to fill domestic reserves, activate commercial storage partnerships, and align infrastructure development with existing strategic priorities. At the same time, the minister responsible for energy should consider targeted interventions that support household-level resilience using the tools already available within the Equalisation Fund.
The next global disruption is not a question of if, but when. The real question is whether South Africa will still be sitting on empty tanks when it arrives.
*The views expressed in this article are that of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect that of the University of Johannesburg.
