Africa is rapidly emerging as the world’s most compelling aviation growth story. Passenger demand continues to accelerate, traffic is expected to double within the next two decades, and the continent remains one of the most under-served aviation markets globally. Yet industry experts argue that demand is no longer the primary challenge.
Tristan Brouard, Associate Director at ACC A, who spoke at a recent industry conference in Gaborone, Botswana, outlines a market facing a paradox: strong growth fundamentals on one hand and increasing financial pressure on the other
He says: “Africa does not have a demand problem. It has a bankability problem. The opportunity is clear, but airlines must be able to demonstrate that their growth plans are financially sustainable, operationally credible, and capable of meeting the requirements of lenders, investors and lessors.”
This discussion comes at a time when airlines worldwide face unprecedented pressure in the aircraft supply market. Significant order backlogs with delivery delays are forcing many airlines to rely increasingly on leasing to secure fleet growth. At the same time, narrowbody and regional aircraft lease rates have risen, while higher global interest rates have increased funding costs across the a
Lessors are passing much of those higher financing costs directly to operators, creating additional pressure on airline margins. For African carriers, those challenges are often amplified by higher operating costs and elevated perceptions of regional investment risk.
Despite these headwinds, Africa continues to outperform much of the global asociation (IATA), Africa was the only region globally to report positive passenger traffic growth of 2.8% in April 2026, while global traffic declined by 3.4%, largely due to disruptions affecting demand in the Middle East
The long-term outlook is even more compelling. Boeing forecasts that African passenger traffic will grow at approximately 6.4% annually through to 2043, making it the fastest-growing arcial aircraft fleet is expected to more than double over the same period
Yet despite being home to nearly one fifth of the world’s population, Africa accounts for only around 2% of global passenger traffic. The imbalance highlights the scale of untapped demand still available across the Continent. Yet, while passenger numbers continue to rise, profitability remains one of the most significant barriers to growth. African airlines continue to face some of the highest operating costs globally.
Industry data shows that jet fuel prices can be 20% to 30% higher than in many other regions due to supply chain inefficiencies, import dependencies and limited refining capacity. Taxes, fees, and charges frequently account for between 30% and 35% of the total ticket price, roughly double the proportion seen in many European markets.
The result is an industry operating on exceptionally thin margins. IATA forecasts African carriers will generate an average net profit of approximately USD 1.30 per passenger in 2026, compared with a global industry average of USD 7.90 per passenger. These economics often create the perception that Africa suffers from a shortage of capital.
However, Brouard challenges that assumption, saying: “Global capital exists. The challenge is not a shortage of funding. The challenge is becoming investable.”
Historically, discussions around African a number of industry stakeholders are now focusing on what airlines need to become more attractive to investors, lenders and lessors, and ACC Ainitiatives now underway across the continent
In 2026, the African Development Bank launched its Integrated A, a continent-wide initiative designed to improve access to ae-sector investment into the aca’s an market demand
At the same time, aion of the Cape Town Convention, which provides internationally recognised protection for aircraft financiers and lessors. Countries that fully implement the convention typically benefit from stronger investor confidence, improved aircraft financing conditions, and lower risk premiums
Industry organisations such as AFRAA have also intensified efforts to strengthen engagement between airlines, lessors, OEMs, commercial lenders, and development finance institutions to improve the overall investment readiness of African carriers.
Collectively, these efforts seek to address one of the sector’s most persistent obstacles: the African risk premium.
