How Trump’s threats have revived the Liberal Party in Canada

If you had asked Canadians a few months ago who would win the country’s next general election, most would have predicted a decisive victory for the Conservative Party.

That outcome does not look so certain now.

In the wake of US President Donald Trump’s threats against Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party has surged in the polls, shrinking the double-digit lead their Conservative rivals had held steadily since mid-2023.

The dramatic change in the country’s political landscape reflects how Trump’s tariffs and his repeated calls to make Canada “the 51st state” have fundamentally altered Canadian voters’ priorities.

Trump’s rhetoric has “pushed away all of the other issues” that were top of mind for Canadians before his inauguration on 20 January, notes Luc Turgeon, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa.

It has even managed to revive the once deeply unpopular Trudeau, whose approval rate has climbed by 12 points since December. The prime minister, of course, will not be in power for much longer, having announced his resignation at the start of the year.

On Sunday, his Liberals will declare the results of the leadership contest to determine who takes over a party running a precarious minority government. The new leader will have two immediate decisions to make: how to respond to Trump’s threats, and when to call a general election. The answer to the first dilemma will surely influence the second.

A federal election must be held on or before 20 October, but could be called as early as this week.

Polls indicate that many Canadians still want a change at the top. But what that change would look like – a Liberal government under new leadership, or a complete shift to the Conservatives – is now anyone’s guess, says Greg Lyle, president of the Toronto-based Innovative Research Group, which has been polling Canadians on their shifting attitudes.

“Up until now, it was a blowout for the Conservatives,” he tells the BBC.

That is because the centre-right party led by Pierre Poilievre, has been effective in its messaging on issues that have occupied the Canadian psyche for the last few years: the rising cost of living, housing unaffordability, crime and a strained healthcare system.

Poilievre successfully tied these societal problems to what he labelled Trudeau’s “disastrous” policies, and promised a return to “common sense politics”.

But with Trudeau’s resignation, and Trump’s threats to Canada’s economic security and even its sovereignty, that messaging has become stale, Mr Lyle says. His polling suggests the majority of the country is now most afraid of Trump’s presidency and the impact it will have on Canada.

Trump’s 25% tariffs on all Canadian imports to the US, some of which have been paused until 2 April, could be devastating for Canada’s economy, which sends three-quarters of all its products to the US. Officials have predicted up to a million job losses as a result, and Canada could head into a recession if the tax on goods persists.

Trudeau left no doubt how seriously he is taking the threat, when he told reporters this week that Trump’s stated reason for the US tariffs – the flow of fentanyl across the border – was bogus and unjustified.

“What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that’ll make it easier to annex us,” the prime minister warned.

“In many ways, it’s an all encompassing, fundamental issue about the survival of the country,” Prof Turgeon tells the BBC. Who is best placed to stand up for Canada against Trump has therefore become the key question in the forthcoming election.

The Conservatives are still ahead in the polls, with the latest averages suggesting 40% of voters back them. The Liberals’ fortunes, meanwhile, have been revived, with their support climbing to slightly over 30% – up 10 points from January.

Liberals have attempted to highlight similarities between the Conservative leader and Republican president. At last week’s leadership debate, candidates referred to Poilievre as “our little version of Trump here at home” and said he was looking to “imitate” the US president. A Liberal Party attack ad juxtaposed clips of the two using similar phrases such as “fake news” and “radical left”.

There are clear differences, however, between the two politicians, in terms of style and substance. And Trump himself has downplayed any parallels, telling British magazine The Spectator in a recent interview that Poilievre is “not Maga enough”.

Still, polls suggest a slipping of Conservative support. A recent poll by national pollster Angus Reid indicates Canadians believe Liberal leadership front-runner Mark Carney is better equipped to deal with Trump on issues of tariffs and trade than Poilievre.

The former central banker for both Canada and England is touting his experience dealing with economic crises, including the 2008 financial crash and Brexit.

And the shift in the political mood has forced Conservatives to recalculate their messaging.

If the election is called soon, the campaign will take place at a moment when Trump’s threats have inspired a fierce patriotism among Canadians. Many are boycotting American goods at their local grocery stores or even cancelling trips to the US.

Prof Turgeon says this “rallying around the flag” has become a key theme of Canadian politics.

The Conservatives have shifted away from their “Canada is Broken” slogan, which Mr Lyle says risked coming across as “anti-patriotic”, to “Canada First”.

Conservatives have also redirected their attacks towards Carney. Before Trump’s tariffs, they ran ads saying he is “just like Justin” in an attempt to tie him to Trudeau. But in recent weeks, the Conservatives have started digging into Carney’s loyalty to Canada.

Specifically, they have questioned whether he had a role in moving the headquarters of Brookfield Asset Management – a Canadian investment company – from Toronto to New York when he served as its chair.

Carney has responded that he had left the firm by the time that decision was made, but company documents reported on by public broadcaster CBC show the board approved the move in October 2024, when Carney was still at Brookfield.

The move, and Carney’s equivocation of his involvement with it, was criticised by the editorial board of Canada’s national newspaper the Globe and Mail, which wrote on Thursday that Carney must be transparent with Canadians.

More broadly, the paper wrote: “Every party leader must understand that Canada is entering a years-long period of uncertainty. The next prime minister will have to call on the trust of Canadians to lead the country where it needs to head but may not want to go.”

Given the anxiety reverberating among Canadians, Mr Lyle says that any ambiguity about Carney’s loyalty to the country could yet be damaging for him and the Liberals.

Whenever the election comes, and whoever wins, one thing is certain: Trump will continue to influence and reshape Canadian politics just as he has in the United States.