Expectations have never been higher for the United States at a men’s World Cup, but they have a tough assignment next. Look ahead to this round-of-32 encounter with our USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina prediction and preview
USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina: The Key Insights
- USA are strong favourites to reach the last 16, defeating Bosnia-Herzegovina in 67.5% of the Opta supercomputer’s 25,000 simulations.
- Bosnia-Herzegovina have never kept a clean sheet in their six FIFA World Cup matches; no side has ever played more at the finals without a shutout.
- USA have lost seven of their eight World Cup knockout-stage matches, conceding 22 goals.
USA face Bosnia-Herzegovina in the round of 32 on Wednesday locally, and into the early hours of Thursday for those watching from Europe
It is no exaggeration to say that expectations – and the accompanying pressure – may have never been higher for the USA
This is not the first time they have played a World Cup knockout match on home soil. As hosts of the 1994 edition, they finished third in Group A, and were handed a daunting challenge in the round of 16: a meeting with eventual champions Brazil in Stanford, California
USA were the clear underdogs and fell to a 1-0 defeat despite playing against 10 men for the majority of the second half
One major similarity between that match and this upcoming tie is the location. The game will be played at the San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, just a 20-minute drive from the site of their 1994 defeat against Brazil
But this time USA are far from underdogs. The whole country will be confident of victory here, and justifiably so
They cruised through their group, defeating Paraguay 4-1 and Australia 2-0 to confirm themselves as group winners with a game to spare. It marked the first time they had won consecutive World Cup matches since the 1930 edition
Those results allowed them to rotate almost their entire XI for their final group game against already-eliminated Türkiye, who defeated them in the eighth minute of added time
USA will be enhanced by the return of Christian Pulisic, who returned from a calf injury against Türkiye. But it’s their centre-forward, Folarin Balogun, who has made the biggest impression so far
Balogun scored twice against Paraguay and caused the own-goal that gave USA the lead against Australia. He could join Bert Patenaude (four goals in 1930) and Landon Donovan (three in 2010) as the only players to score at least three goals in a single edition of the finals
A well-rested squad, Pulisic’s return, and Balogun’s form all combine to make USA particularly well-set to prosper against Bosnia – but history is not on their side. They have lost seven of their eight World Cup knockout-stage matches, conceding 22 goals. Their one win came against Mexico in the 2002 round of 16, winning 2-0 with goals from Brian McBride and Donovan
Still, they would not trade their experience for Bosnia’s lack thereof. This is Bosnia’s first-ever appearance at the World Cup knockout stages, and they weren’t entirely convincing during the group stage of this tournament, despite their progression
They qualified as one of the best third-placed teams after defeating a weak Qatar side 3-1, although they only created 0.68 expected goals in that match
They will have to tighten up at the back if they are to stand a chance here. They have never kept a clean sheet in their six World Cup matches; no side has ever played more at the finals without one
One of Bosnia’s main weapons is their physicality. They have the tallest squad at the tournament, with an average height of 6-foot-1, and they have made the most of that advantage, scoring three goals from corners. The last team to score more at a single edition was England in 2018, with four
Ermin Mahmić will surely be pushing for a start after scoring from the bench in his only two appearances so far, and with both of his total shot attempts
Attention should also be paid to the intriguing story of Bosnia winger Esmir Bajraktarevic, who was in fact born in the United States in 2004, where his family eventually emigrated after fleeing the Bosnian War. Bajraktarević decided to represent his parents’ nation of birth despite receiving his first international cap for USA in a 2024 friendly against Slovenia, switching allegiances a few months later
USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina Head-to-Head
This will be the fourth meeting between USA and Bosnia and Herzegovina, with the Stars and Stripes unbeaten in the first three (W2 D1), all in friendlies from 2013 to 2021
USA have won just one of their last 21 FIFA World Cup meetings with UEFA nations (D7 L13), and are winless in their last 13 (D6 L7) since a 3-2 victory over Portugal in 2002
USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina Prediction
The Opta supercomputer views co-hosts USA as strong favourites for this match, with a 67.5% chance of winning the game, and a 76.0% chance of progressing
Across the supercomputer’s projections, the second-most likely result was a draw, at 18.3%, followed by a Bosnia-Herzegovina win, which occurred in 14.3% of simulations
USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina Squads
USA: Matt Turner, Matt Freese, Chris Brady, Sergiño Dest, Chris Richards, Antonee Robinson, Auston Trusty, Miles Robinson, Tim Ream, Alex Freeman, Mark McKenzie, Joe Scally, Tyler Adams, Giovanni Reyna, Weston McKennie, Christian Pulisic, Brenden Aaronson, Sebastian Berhalter, Cristian Roldan, Malik Tillman, Max Arfsten, Ricardo Pepi, Haji Wright, Folarin Balogun, Timothy Weah, Álex Zendejas
Bosnia-Herzegovina: Nikola Vasilj, Mladen Jurkas, Martin Zlomislic, Nihad Mujakic, Dennis Hadzikadunic, Tarik Muharemovic, Sead Kolasinac, Amar Dedic, Nikola Katic, Stjepan Radeljic, Nidal Celik, Benjamin Tahirovic, Armin Gigovic, Ivan Basic, Ivan Sunjic, Amar Memic, Amir Hadziahmetovic, Dzenis Burnic, Ermin Mahmic, Samed Bazdar, Ermedin Demirovic, Edin Dzeko, Kerim Alajbegovic, Esmir Bajraktarevic, Haris Tabakovic, Jovo Lukic
USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina Predicted Lineups
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