EU Watch
Why the EU Commission’s Rule of Law Report is not working as an early warning system
Liberties Rule of Law Gap Analysis 2026: Initial analysis suggests that, while still an important tool, the report remains both insufficient in its assessment and its ability to signal the need for urgent or preventive action.
by Kersty McCourt & Anastasiia Polezhaeva
Last Friday – buried on a late summer afternoon – the European Commission published its seventh annual Rule of Law Report. This was the second under the new Commission and the leadership of Commissioner McGrath, and the fifth that includes recommendations. At a moment of profound instability and need for principled global leadership, this year’s report should serve as a compass and provide sufficient guidance and forewarning to the Member States. But does it live up to these standards?
An initial analysis by Liberties suggests that, while still an important tool, the report remains both insufficient in its assessment and its ability to signal the need for urgent or preventive action. The serious consequences of rule of law backsliding are not fully grasped, nor the stealth by which a country can move from stagnating to backsliding.
Liberties’ own Rule of Law Report, published in March 2026, provided a starker view. Five Member States were deemed to be taking deliberate action to dismantle the rule of law, with a further six sliding distinctly in the wrong direction. Just over half were making no progress in either direction. Alarmingly, many of the actions that led to a decline in the Member States are mirrored in the EU institutions themselves: an excessive use of fast-track lawmaking, rolling back of fundamental rights protections, and a concerted campaign against watchdog organisations.
Three questions are critical to assess this year’s report and the trajectory of change:
What is the progress on the implementation of recommendations?
- 98% of recommendations remain unimplemented. Only 2% have been fully implemented, and most remain in a stagnant state of partial implementation.
- The Commission assesses that approximately 50% of the 2025 recommendations are fully or partially implemented, citing an impressive speed of progress within one year – however, 93% of the 2025 recommendations were repeated from previous years. In addition, the focus on partial implementation obscures the numerous recommendations, where there is limited or stagnated progress. 29% of recommendations show no (or no further) progress, and a further 24% show limited progress. Only 10% show significant progress.
- Some Member States are particularly recalcitrant in demonstrating progress. Germany has four recommendations – three of which show no (or no further) progress. In Italy, out of six recommendations, three also show no (or no further) progress, in two, there is limited or some progress, and only one, on digital case management, shows significant progress.
- By contrast, Hungary demonstrates that where there is political will, changes can be implemented in a matter of months, with three recommendations now showing some progress and one part of a recommendation fully implemented.
What new recommendations were introduced in 2026?
Only 7 new recommendations were introduced in 2026 – a slight decrease from the eight new recommendations last year. This demonstrates the report’s limited impact. New or emerging issues are often overlooked as existing recommendations remain unimplemented and thus repeated, with no consequences for non-action. This defeats the two key objectives of the report: to act as a catalyst for reforms and identify and address early warning signs.
Rightly, Commissioner McGrath repeated the importance of Europe having an early warning system, but if the system is unable to rapidly respond and hold Member States to account, then the early warning is ineffective. While some complex recommendations might take more than a year to implement, a persistent lack of progress means the system is not working.
Are the recommendations useful in guiding reforms?
As noted, the new Hungarian government has demonstrated the impact of political will. Hungary has several strands of reforms to be implemented, including through the super milestones under the Recovery and Resilience Facility, court judgments, and the Rule of Law Report. Taken together, do these form a cohesive plan for recovery and reform? This will be further explored in Liberties forthcoming 2026 Gap Analysis.
Seven years into the reporting cycle and two years under the Commission, it is a missed opportunity not to see the 2026 Rule of Law Report point in a new, more focused direction. The speed at which backsliding can take hold, especially with several consequential elections on the horizon, should be a cause for concern. The changes are too minimal or too slow. There is a commitment to further align with the European Parliament’s rule of law process and to strengthen the link between the rule of law and access to EU funds – as proposed in the Commission’s proposal for the 2028 -2034 budget. However, Commissioner Virkkunen made it very clear that there would be no automaticity between the rule of law recommendations and access to EU funds and in any event, 2028 is still some way off. In the meantime, the problems of non-implementation persist, and the process remains inept at addressing escalating challenges.
#ROLReport2026
,
#DemandingOnDemocracy
Donate to liberties
Your contribution matters
As a watchdog organisation, Liberties reminds politicians that respect for human rights is non-negotiable. We’re determined to keep championing your civil liberties, will you stand with us? Every donation, big or small, counts.
We’re grateful to all our supporters
Your contributions help us in the following ways
► Liberties remains independent
► It provides a stable income, enabling us to plan long-term
► We decide our mission, so we can focus on the causes that matter
► It makes us stronger and more impactful
Your contribution matters
As a watchdog organisation, Liberties reminds politicians that respect for human rights is non-negotiable. We’re determined to keep championing your civil liberties, will you stand with us? Every donation, big or small, counts.
the loop
Why should I?
You will get the latest reports before anyone else!
You can follow what we are doing for your rights!
You will know about our achivements!
