Five countries in Southern Africa held general elections in 2024, but the most striking thing were the poll results where incumbents lost massively against the opposition for various reasons. Is this a new era where liberation movements time is up?
The elections were held in South Africa, Mozambique, Botswana, Mauritius and Namibia.
In Botswana and Mauritius, the opposition won convincingly, while in South Africa the ANC lost its majority for the first time in 30 years post-independence and was forced to form a coalition government.
By the time of writing this, Namibians were voting and for the first time the liberation movement had put a woman candidate for the presidential post.
The upsurge by opposition parties has left the liberation movements in a quandary and more importantly asking themselves what went wrong.
First to feel the heat was South Africa’s ANC in May elections. Its national support dipped below 50% for the first time since 1994 independence polls.
ANC got just 42% and was followed by the Democratic Alliance (DA) 22%, uMkondo weSizwe (MK) 14% and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) 9%. The ANC was in a fix. It had either to form a minority government which would have been very unstable or forced into a coalition with any of the top three opposition parties for stability.
The ANC hammered a grand coalition that has the DA and a plethora of small parties. The MK and EFF chose not to join the coalition and be official opposition. The liberation movement had bought itself another five years at the helm and time to reorganise.
The next election was in Mozambique where the ruling part Frelimo won a disputed election that has sparked civil unrest and in some instances violence. The regional body, SADC, held an extraordinary summit in Harare to try find solution to the political problem. Frelimo stands accused of ballot stuffing.
In Botswana the liberation party, Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) lost the election spectacularly. It won only four seats in the 61-seat parliament, losing to an opposition coalition. The BDP was gracious in defeat and handed over power swiftly and peacefully.
Mauritius was next. The ruling party lost dismally too, but it also conceded and peacefully transferred power to the opposition.
At the time of writing this article, Namibia was in the middle of a general election in which the ruling party, SWAPO, was facing a litmus test. Its hold on power was under threat.
It has to be put into context that in SADC, Malawi and Zambia were the first countries where the liberation parties lost to opposition in the early 1990’s. Thankfully, the founding fathers – Kamuzu Banda and Kenneth Kaunda, respectively, handed over power peacefully.
After this year’s elections, Botswana and Mauritius have joined the league of countries that have witnessed a peaceful and democratic transfer of power.
It is becoming clear that nationalism has run its course and things have been made worse by maladministration and the tanking global economy, therefore creating spaces for the liberal opposition parties to have a crack at power.
Democracy is on the rise and being embraced by the people of the region. Zimbabwe and Mozambique remain exceptions, where the nationalist liberation movements have clung to power after disputed elections.
In South Africa, the ANC has been mature about the prospect of losing power and acted proactively by forming a grand coalition. It remains to be seen if the liberation movement can reinvent itself and reclaim power at the next elections or coalitions will be the new politics in the short to medium term.
The reality is that a new phase of politics is on the rise in the region. Opposition parties have been able to encapsulate and articulate the needs of the youths, who happen to be the largest electoral demographic. The youths in the region are looking for jobs, better education and living standards and nothing less.
Lastly, there is also the emerging trend of coalition politics against the winners take all mentality from the past. The test is maintaining or keeping the coalitions functional and delivering on promises or the countries will be forced to keep in elections mode like in Israel or Italy where coalitions never last a full term.
Cover Image: File photo
