Bitcoin lost 35.36% in value over the past 90 days. (Graphic: Nicola Mawson | Freepik)
Bitcoin has recovered some of its recent losses, climbing 5.54% early this morning after a rout that saw it lose 35.36% over the past 90 days – a decline of $36 210 (R588 438) at this morning’s exchange rate of R16.25.
In October, Bitcoin reached an all-time high, breaking through the $125 000 mark at an exchange rate of R17.26, making it worth as much as R2.1 million.
Bitcoin is currently trading around the $65 000 mark (R1 million) amid risk-off sentiment in global markets, says Marius Reitz, GM for Africa at Luno. “Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have dipped lower as investor fear deepens.”
Reitz notes “the broader market context matters here”.
Moon Pursuit Capital, a crypto-native investment firm, explains that Bitcoin began February near $77 000 to $78 000 (a range of R1.25 million and R1.27 million). This is its lowest level since November 2024 and follows a weekend selloff that compounded broader weakness across risk assets.
Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz, which enables users to trade, buy, or sell crypto options, says: “It’s been a bloodbath across crypto markets over the past few days.”
Forster adds that “short-term fear is dominating market psychology”. Short-term price swings are currently much higher than expected longer-term swings, showing that investors are particularly uncertain about what will happen in the near future, he notes.
Bitcoin has lost 15.88% over the past five years and a February rout has been particularly harsh.
The February rout in Bitcoin was strongly linked to US president Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chairman last Friday. Markets reacted to the news with a shift in expectations for US monetary policy.
Investors interpreted his nomination as a signal of potentially less aggressive, or more predictable interest rate moves, prompting a reallocation out of highly-speculative assets, including Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies. This “risk-off” move drove sharp price declines.
At the same time, there was a massive slide in technology shares, with Bloomberg noting that Claude.ai parent Anthropic’s unveiling of two automated tools for the finance and legal industries, unveiled on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, triggered a broad selloff in tech shares.
The selloff wiped out about $1 trillion in market value and hit major US names, including the Magnificent Seven.
Reitz adds that stocks are feeling the effects of the broader market malaise, particularly software-related tech stocks. “Analysts say fears around the impact of artificial intelligence on the software sector could be roiling markets.”
Investors are shifting from risky tech assets, including crypto, into commodities such as gold and silver, which have hit record highs, says Reitz. Luno saw a 60% rise in PAX Gold stablecoin transactions in January, reflecting this move.
Gold – traditionally a safe haven – spiked at more than $5 500 at the end of January, while silver hit a record $115 at the same time.
The yellow metal and silver have recently lost ground as traders moved back into the dollar because of more fiscal policy certainty in the US. The rand’s end-January rate of R15.68 was the strongest it had been since mid-2022 before it too rapidly lost ground because of calmer US markets.
Commenting on the crypto currency’s moves this Tuesday, Nigel Green, CEO of financial advisory company deVere Group, said Bitcoin stabilised following a sharp weekend sell-off, signalling resilience rather than retreat as macro pressures briefly dominate market sentiment.
“The dollar is flexing,” Green says. “This always creates friction for Bitcoin in the short-term. What matters is that prices are holding firm at elevated levels rather than unwinding.”
Reitz notes that crypto market momentum is expected to pivot from retail-driven activity, often fuelled by social media hype, to regulatory compliance and approvals, which could encourage greater institutional adoption, yet progress may be slow.
