from OKORO CHINEDU in Lagos, Nigeria
Nigeria Bureau
LAGOS, (CAJ News) – OPPOSITION parties in Nigeria are close to naming who from their top table will stand for president at elections due in January.
President Bola Tinubu will run for a second and final term as allowed by the constitution, weakened by a lack of progress in the war against Islamic rebels who for 20 years have ravaged the north, abducting thousands of among the military, clergy and civilians who are then ransomed.
Government has paid to get back its soldiers and those linked to ministers and the state, leading to a criticism that Tinubu is both fighting and funding the insurgency.
Late in 2025 and again this year, he faced the humiliation of needing the US air force to bomb rebel strongholds, despite a defence budget of $5bn, the largest in sub-Saharan Africa.
The poll in 2023 produced a muddled result. Tinubu failed to win a majority and rules through a coalition.
Almost two-million ballots behind him was veteran politician Atiku Abubakar, standing a sixth time for president.
He turns 80 in November in a country with a median age of 18 and hopes the next election will lift his African Democratic Congress or ADC to victory.
His plan was to bring rivals into the ADC. Splitting the vote across a long list of candidates invariably leaves the ruling party in power.
Two former state-governors, each with their own support base, came aboard only to leave, citing conflict over who should be the ADC’s presidential candidate.
Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso stood last time, coming third and forth respectively but have joined the Nigeria Democratic Congress where Obi is expected to top the bill with Kwankwaso as his running mate.
Both men are in their 60s and, while age carries a respect in Nigeria — the president is 74 — this could be their final run.
FUEL RIOTS
Nigeria is Africa’s largest oil exporter yet, on Tinubu’s watch, the price of fuel doubled, then doubled again, sparking riots.
The manufacturing sector is small, with such basic goods as frozen peas and tinned fish being imported.
The naira has lost value, pushing up the cost of living, with inflation now 15% and rising.
Since independence from Britain in 1961, Nigeria has endured half-a-dozen coups, but for close on 30 years, democracy has prevailed.
The press is free, tarnished by a plethora of publications that have no sign of income and where stories can be run for a fee.
Radio is a favoured medium and it’s there one hears the phrase, “Battle of the has-beens”, referring to the fact that Tinubu, Abubarkar, Obi and Kwankwaso have spent years on the hustings and, despite their efforts, life on the street only seems to get worse and there’s no end to the war.
Which is why, when a new candidate emerged in the past month, he grabbed the headlines. Mohammed Hayatu-Deen is well-known but not in politics.
Educated at Harvard, he has built a business empire that includes the country’s two largest shopping malls, and is untainted by scandal.
His initials MHD have become a brand, and if he’s kept his political views to himself, now they are out in the open and drawing crowds.
He has promised to prosecute all “bandits and kidnappers” as terrorists through expedited proceedings in dedicated courts. He ties the security problem to Nigeria’s economic woes,something which his opponents have failed to do.
And he has reached for the youth vote.
“There is no plan for a country with such a young population,” he told journalists. “And if we have too few jobs now, where will it be in 10 or 20 years?”
MHD has not formed his own party but, perhaps to the horror of Atiku Abubaker is standing against him as presidential candidate for the ADC.
When asked what government can do to solve the nation’s problems, he quotes Ronald Reagan’s famous phrase: “Government IS the problem”.
A nation divided
Nigeria is complex, divided between Islam and Christianity which is again split into Catholic and Protestant.
There are four major language groups — Yoruba, Hausa, Fulani and Igbo — each with with a voice of their own, and all need to be represented in cabinet.
This is a juggle when one party holds power, more difficult in a coalition.
Many Igbo still talk of their ill-fated grab at secession in the late-1960s as the nation of Biafra.
A civil war dragged them back into the fold and left and estimated two-million dead. Support for Biafra Mark ll is growing and it will need a smart leader to unite the nation.
Having such a young population is an advantage because music, the Internet and the quest for jobs are in the forefront where only older voters may remember quarrels of the past.
But the generations unite on the chronic lack of jobs.
Industry, says MHD, can be home-grown if government creates the right environment.
“I see Nigerians running companies in Britain and the US, but less-so here. Why? Because our bureaucracy strangles enterprise.”
Unemployment is more of a burden for school leavers without a home of their own. Even those with degrees complain about a shortage of work.
MHD has tapped this, saying they have every right to “feel abandoned by a leadership that is barely aware they exist”.
In another pitch he wants “far greater freedom of the press, taking our people into the confidence of a government that has nothing to hide.”
And more young people in the public service.
President Tinubu has a chance at re-election given he has resources of the state at hand. His problem lies in the rising grocery and fuel bills that have pushed millions into debt, even poverty.
Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso enjoy a regional following but have yet to find a message by which the nation as a whole can be inspired.
And there’s respect for Atiku Abubakar’s tenacity in making a seventh run for president.
Age and a legacy of failure count again him and he risks being viewed “yesterday’s man”.
It’s too early to gauge how Mohammed Hayatu-Deen will fare, but he brings a freshness to the contest and real-world experience.
In a field of “has-beens”, voters might welcome a new face.
– CAJ News
