News
Martes, 21 de julio de 2026
Historic Super El Niño Threatens Global Agriculture and Commodity Markets
New climate forecasts point to a potentially record-breaking El Niño event, raising concerns over crop production, food prices, and global trade flows.
Marcus Ellington
Marcus Ellington is a U.S.-based journalist covering agricultural markets, global trade, and agricultural policy, with an <a href="https://absafricatv.com/lmh-students-take-runners-up-place-in-international-law-moot/” title=”LMH students take runners-up place in international law moot”>international perspective on their impact across the global agri-food system.
Fuente: AgroLatam.com
Autor: AgroLatam.com
Global hunger declined for a third consecutive year in 2025, according to a United Nations report released on July 21, 2026, as improvements in Asia, Latin America and parts of Africa reduced the number of undernourished people to approximately 645 million. The report, prepared jointly by five U.N. agencies, matters to farmers, agribusinesses and policymakers because its gains could be threatened by climate volatility, geopolitical conflict and disruptions to global trade routes that are already raising fertilizer, fuel and transportation costs across agricultural supply chains.
The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World report estimated that 7.8% of the global population experienced hunger in 2025, down from 8.1% in 2024 and 8.6% in 2022. The decline represents measurable progress after years of pressure from inflation, armed conflict, pandemic-related disruptions and volatile commodity prices. For U.S. agriculture, the trend signals continued demand for grains, livestock products and agricultural technology, but it also highlights how quickly food access can deteriorate when production costs rise or export channels become unreliable.
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The most significant improvement occurred in Asia, particularly in India, where hunger fell below 10% as targeted welfare programs and stronger agricultural productivity expanded access to food. India represents nearly one-fifth of the global population, making its performance a major driver of the worldwide decline. Latin America and the Caribbean also recorded gains, while the Dominican Republic was removed from the global hunger map. These changes demonstrate how investment in yields, rural infrastructure, social protection and sustainable agriculture can strengthen food systems over time.
Africa recorded a slight improvement, but it remains the region facing the greatest challenge. Approximately 309 million Africans-one in every five people on the continent-experienced hunger in 2025. Ethiopia, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, Senegal and Zambia showed signs of progress, yet population growth, drought, conflict and limited access to agricultural inputs continue to constrain production. The disparity is economically important because Africa is expected to become an increasingly significant market for U.S. commodities, crop genetics, machinery and precision agriculture services.
Despite the positive figures, FAO chief economist Máximo Torero warned that global food systems remain exposed to immediate economic and environmental threats. Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for energy and agricultural inputs, are contributing to higher prices for fuel, fertilizers and freight. These increases move rapidly through the supply chain, affecting planting decisions, yields, commodity prices and retail food inflation. U.S. producers could also face greater input costs if global nitrogen and energy markets tighten.
A potentially strong El Niño weather pattern represents another major risk. Changes in rainfall and temperature could disrupt crop production in vulnerable regions, reduce pasture availability for livestock and increase competition for internationally traded grain. Weather-related production losses abroad can create export opportunities for American farmers, but they may also generate volatility in feed markets, crop insurance exposure and transportation demand. The consequences would be especially significant for corn, soybeans, wheat and livestock operations already managing narrow margins.
The report projects that hunger could continue declining through 2030, although progress remains fragile. Conflict-related emergencies, such as the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, are not fully reflected because the study measures chronic undernourishment rather than short-term food insecurity. U.N. officials said rebuilding damaged agricultural infrastructure in conflict zones will require years. Restoring irrigation, storage, livestock systems and local supply chains will be essential to reducing dependence on emergency food deliveries and supporting long-term economic recovery.
The findings also show that reducing hunger does not automatically guarantee adequate nutrition. Child malnutrition remains persistently high, anemia among women is worsening and adult obesity continues to rise. This combination creates a broader challenge for agricultural policy: producing enough calories is no longer sufficient. Governments, co-ops and food companies must also improve access to affordable proteins, fruits, vegetables and nutrient-dense foods while reducing losses between farms, processors and consumers.
