MoneyBadger CEO Carel Van Wyk.
South African payment and logistics leaders say the country’s digital commerce sector is set for solid growth in 2026, but exporters may face continued pressure from US tariffs.
The forecasts come from executives at Peach Payments, MoneyBadger and TUNL, who outlined expected trends for the year ahead.
MoneyBadger CEO Carel Van Wyk said merchants are finally acting on long-standing consumer interest in new payment types. “The need for alternative payment options has been evident in consumer surveys over the past few years but it seems to be finally resulting in substantial change in merchant behaviour.
“This has been driven by changing consumer appetites and the need to serve the country’s lightly banked population better.”
One major shift expected next year is wider use of PayShap Real Time Payouts. Van Wyk said he is optimistic a major retailer will adopt in-store PayShap transactions soon.
He also predicted “a sharp increase in the availability of Bitcoin payments, after the public success of Pick n Pay’s introduction of the payment method two years ago”.
Rahul Jain, CEO of Peach Payments, said businesses and consumers are increasingly adopting modern payment options. “Buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) and other retail credit options are increasingly available to consumers.”
He adds that growing trust in established brands and rising social commerce via platforms such as Instagram and WhatsApp will support further expansion.
Rahul Jain, CEO and co-founder of Peach Payments.
On international trade, Aretha Cooper, COO of TUNL, warned that tariff uncertainty remains a major obstacle for exporters. “We anticipate that the impact of the current US tariff regime on South African exporters will persist. Ongoing uncertainty around tariff policy — despite the recent Supreme Court appeal — and the slow pace of negotiations between our governments suggest these conditions will continue to shape global shipping operations for some time.”
Despite global pressures the outlook for intra-SADC commerce is more positive. Jain said Mauritius will continue to see “phenomenal growth”, helped by broader acceptance of online payments, especially in travel.
Van Wyk also expects advances in regulation and crypto adoption. He said more South Africans are likely to use Bitcoin to hedge against currency swings and to make everyday purchases.
He anticipates that clarity from the South African Reserve Bank will help unlock crypto as an alternative to SWIFT for international payments.
Aretha Cooper, COO of TUNL.
Jain said online retail could reach 10% of total retail sales in 2026, with travel driving much of the expansion thanks to greater use of alternative and local payment methods.
Cooper said local conditions remain stable, but warns that overseas demand for South African exports is weakening. “We do see a general worsening of demand from international shoppers for local exports based on the tariff changes that have happened. The SME Export Index shows we should expect this diminished demand to continue and likely increase in 2026.
“We may still get some tariff clarity from the US Supreme Court of Appeals’ ruling on the new tariffs, but we’re not holding our breaths,” she concluded.
