Finnish President Alexander Stubb says he is pessimistic that a ceasefire can be achieved in Ukraine by summer’s end, given that the momentum for a deal has slowed, and that Vladimir Putin has shown no interest in even agreeing to a temporary truce.
Finland, which shares a 1,300-kilometre border with Russia, joined the NATO alliance in 2023 as a result of the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine. Since then, Stubb has become an influential voice of support for Kyiv and the broader issues of European security.
“We’re coming, you know, to a point where everyone understands that we have to end this war,” he said. “You see … the collateral damage of this war is mind-blowing.
“And then we have to ask ourselves the question, if this is a stalemate, if it’s a war of attrition, how long can we allow it to continue?”
Speaking to CBC News during a wide-ranging interview from the sprawling official presidential residence in Naantali, Finland, Stubb talked about the evolving threat from Russia, Arctic security and his relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump. He even had a few words of advice for Canada.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb says he is pessimistic about the possibility for a ceasefire in the Ukraine-Russia war before the end of summer.
Teeing off with Trump
Trump made headlines over the last few months for inviting world leaders to the Oval Office for public meetings, with top administration officials and journalists looking on. Politicians were forced to tread carefully while speaking to the often-volatile U.S. president. But Stubb had a more casual interaction.
In March, he played golf with Trump at Mar-a-Lago in Florida. Stubb’s office said the two discussed security issues over lunch — including Ukraine.
“In Finnish history, it’s quite rare that the Finnish president has spent so much time with the president of the United States, either physically or on the phone or messaging,” Stubb said.
But he said it’s important for the leader of a small country to maintain good relations with the head of a large one.
Stubb told CBC News that his approach to foreign policy — and in particular Trump — is to deal with the reality in front of you: Instead of trying to change the situation, figure out how to best influence it.
“So you know, we have a straightforward, good relationship with President Trump,” he said. “At the same time, I have no illusions.”
Finnish President Alexander Stubb says he believes U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy is ‘transactional,’ but it’s important for a small country like his to maintain good relations with a much larger one.
‘There doesn’t seem to be a momentum’
While Trump had previously vowed to quickly end the war in Ukraine, a ceasefire — let alone a peace deal — remains far off and the growing frustration is apparent.
After Trump met with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the Pope’s funeral in April, Stubb said he was more optimistic that there could be a ceasefire, but he now feels differently.
“There doesn’t seem to be a momentum,” he said. “I think we’re gonna have to grind this out, unfortunately, this summer and see how it moves into the fall.”
Given Russia’s refusal to agree to a truce, Stubb is adamant that military support for Ukraine needs to be increased, and sanctions against Russia stiffened. The European Union is hoping to approve its 18th package of sanctions against Russia by the end of this week, and Stubb would like to see Trump support a bipartisan bill by a group of U.S. senators imposing a 500 per cent tariff on countries that buy Russian energy.
If passed, the measure would hit China and India particularly hard.
NATO needs to bolster icebreakers, Stubb says
While Finland is boosting its defences along its border with Russia and preparing to host a contingent of NATO land forces, it is also heavily focused on maritime security.
Stubb believes that China and Russia will try to exert control over a greater swath of the Arctic, where a warming climate will make waters more navigable, potentially leading to territorial conflicts, and increased competition for shipping routes and resources.
Given that Russia has dozens of icebreakers, Stubb says NATO needs to be bolstering its fleet.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb says he believes rather than the U.S. taking control of Greenland, the Trump administration should invest in the semi-autonomous Danish territory instead.
Finland has built more than half of the world’s icebreakers, he said. Last year, the country signed a deal with Canada and the U.S. allowing all three nations to share expertise and ramp up construction of the ships.
Construction is beginning on the PolarMax icebreaker, which will be built both in Quebec and in Finland, and is expected to be delivered to the Canadian Coast Guard by 2030.
“The threat in the Arctic is security-based,” he said. “It’s also about an economic rivalry and it’s also about climate change.”
And the elbows up movement?
Stubb is an avid hockey fan and his father, Göran Stubb, was a top European NHL scout for decades. Throughout the interview with CBC News, he spoke about hockey rivalries, and the shared connection between Finland and Canada.
“When I was a kid, I spent summers in the U.S. and in Canada, and I studied in the U.S., so my heart is in North America quite often,” he said.
When asked for advice about how Canadians should handle living next to a large, dominant neighbour, he replied that he believes Canada-U.S. relations have always been “rock-solid.”
Finnish President Alexander Stubb jokes that a sauna and an ice bath might be a welcome addition to Canada’s ‘elbows up’ slogan against Donald Trump’s tariffs and annexation threats.
“Just continue to work with the Americans as allies and as friends,” he said. “You should never get flustered, you know, stay cool, calm and collected.”
And what does he think about the recent elbows up movement? “Elbows up is fine, but I still think that they fight too much in the rink in the NHL,” he said.
“If sometimes language seems a bit on the rough side, take an ice bath and a sauna. That helps.”
