Africa is responsible for only 3.8% of the world’s total greenhouse gas emissions, and yet African countries are bearing the full brunt of the devastating effects of increasingly severe droughts and floods with dramatic consequences…
The current global warming could reach 1.5°C to 4.4°C by 2100. Experts say that it should be contained to a maximum of +1.5°C by 2100 to prevent our climate from getting out of control. Immediate, rapid and massive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are needed to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.
The fight against global warming is therefore a matter of global security. If Africa, China and India- which are home to more than 4 billion of the 8 billion people on our planet- had the same consumption model as Europe and the USA ( less than a billion people with a global GDP exceeding 40%), the world would experience upheaval on a scale not seen for centuries.
Seven impacts are expected to influence socio-economic policies.
The average rise in temperatures is causing the melting of continental ice (glaciers, icebergs). Which leads to a rise in sea levels. The average rate of sea level rise is accelerating from 1.3 mm per year between 1901 and 1971, to 1.9 mm per year between 1971 and 2006, and 3.7 mm per year between 2006 and 2020. It is estimated that sea levels could rise much faster in the future. As a result, coastal areas will face more frequent and more violent flooding and increased erosion.
The oceans naturally absorb carbon dioxide. In excess, carbon dioxide acidifies the underwater environment and causes the disappearance of certain species. The modification of the oceans leads to a drop in its oxygen content, warming and an increase in the frequency of heat waves, affecting marine ecosystems and populations.
The increase in extreme weather events causes water to evaporate, which changes the rainfall pattern. Rainfall becomes more intense and more violent. The soil cannot retain the water, which flows directly into waterways rather than seeping in. The groundwater table can no longer replenish itself.
Global warming is causing disruption to the seasons and the movement of air masses which could, in the long term, increase the number of extreme weather events: storms, hurricanes, cyclones, floods, heat waves, droughts, fires, etc.
Global warming is a threat to plants and animals because the growth cycles of plants are being altered: late frosts, early fruits, late leaf fall, etc. Many species will not be able to withstand the new climatic conditions, and agriculture will have to adapt by choosing early species. The behaviour of many animals is being disrupted. These will have to migrate or adapt or face the threat of extinction.
The impact of global warming is disrupting human living conditions and some of its effects are irreversible. 3.5 billion people live in habitats that are highly vulnerable to climate change. If sea levels rise by 1.1 metres by 2100, nearly 100 million people will be forced to move, and some coastal land will no longer be cultivable. In addition, climate change considerably increases the risk of disease and pandemics.
The climate disruptions are affecting the distribution, quantity and quality of natural resources. Agricultural yields and fishing activities are being impacted in the long term and could decline throughout the 21st century, with fluctuations each year.
According to the IEA, current government commitments would only allow for 20% of emission reductions to be achieved by 2030. We should invest up to 4 trillion dollars every year over the next decade, mostly in developing countries, in electric vehicles, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage and biofuels, in energy efficiency (primarily in energy transport) , industry, health , agriculture and leisure… . Without a change of course, forecasts predict a loss of production equivalent to around 5% of global GDP by 2050, and up to 13% by 2100.
It is becoming imperative for the sake of humanity that co-development for shared wealth replaces a strictly commercial vision. The challenge of the 21st century is that of a genuine ecological policy that considers the protection of the environment and the living environment, involving a reorientation of agricultural, industrial and energy policy. The dialogue of civilisations and tolerance are elements that are more necessary than ever for the cohabitation of peoples and nations.
