This is a huge moment for Brazil.
Ex-President Jair Bolsonaro has been convicted of attempting a coup and leading an armed criminal group after losing the last election, which culminated in his supporters attacking government buildings.
He now faces a lengthy prison sentence, after Brazil’s Supreme Court reached the majority of three votes needed to find him guilty.
For years, Bolsonaro has fiercely divided the country into those who love him and those who hate him.
His supporters, who include President Donald Trump, have described the trial as political persecution. Trump used it as an excuse to impose 50% tariffs on Brazil.
His critics have praised the proceedings as necessary to bring closure, and to set a precedent that trying to undermine democracy will not be tolerated.
This ruling is likely to divide the country further.
This trial has gripped Brazil, as millions have seen it live-streamed on social media and television into their homes. And the story line has been no less dramatic than a TV series.
Many people may remember the shocking moments when thousands of Bolsonaro supporters attacked government buildings on 8 January 2023, in scenes reminiscent of the 6 January Capitol riots in the US two years before.
But throughout the course of this trial, many gobsmacking pieces of evidence have been revealed and read out in court.
These include that a plan, drafted by Bolsonaro’s allies, for elite armed forces personnel to assassinate the president-elect Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva, his running mate, and the Supreme Court judge Alexandre de Moraes was printed out at the presidential palace. It listed “poison” as a method to kill Lula.
Bolsonaro’s lawyer was visibly incensed on behalf of his client, when he argued there was no evidence linking Bolsonaro to this plot or the 8 January riots.
The court was also reminded of Bolsonaro’s attempts to cast doubt on the electoral system. These included him holding a meeting with foreign ambassadors at the presidential palace to make false claims about electronic voting machines before the election, and public bodies obstructing voters from getting to polling stations – under the guise of “checking the condition of vehicles” – on the day of the vote.
At various moments throughout this trial, the judges referred to Brazil’s past. Its democracy is young – it was only restored in 1985 after two decades of a dictatorship, instigated by a military coup, backed by the US.
To Bolsonaro’s critics, the parallels were chilling.
The judge leading this case – Alexandre de Moraes – said Brazil risked “slowly forgetting” that it nearly returned to a dictatorship because “a criminal organisation, comprised of a political group, doesn’t know how to lose elections”.
Brazil’s past has been littered with coups or attempted coups, but no one has ever sat in the dock, and past plotters have been granted amnesty. Bolsonaro’s critics hope this verdict sends a clear signal: no more.
So what happens next?
Bolsonaro is yet to receive his sentence – but he could now be handed one lasting for the rest of his life.
He will likely want to appeal to have his case heard by the entire Supreme Court, which includes some justices he appointed as president, but it would take two of the five justices finding him not guilty for that to be allowed. Only after all appeals have been exhausted can someone be sent to prison in Brazil.
Jair Bolsonaro didn’t appear in the courtroom for the verdicts. His lawyer has cited health reasons. He has suffered various health problems after he was stabbed at a presidential campaign rally in 2018, before he took office.
There is a precedent in Brazil of convicts being granted house arrest due to age or health reasons, which he could ask for when sentenced.
Congress – where Bolsonaro’s party has a majority – is also trying to push through legislation that would grant him amnesty. One of the right-wing frontrunners for next year’s presidential election, who is courting Bolsonaro’s support, has said he would give Bolsonaro amnesty if elected.
So, while this ruling is an important milestone, his punishment still remains unclear.
