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The contest to succeed President Cyril Ramaphosa as leader of the ANC has taken an unexpected turn, with new polling revealing a dramatically shifting landscape—one in which Patrice Motsepe, a billionaire who insists he is not a candidate has emerged as the public’s favourite.
Succession chatter has dominated the sidelines of this week’s ANC National General Council (NGC) gathering, despite repeated assurances from party leaders that no leadership battle is under way.
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The NGC, held at the Birchwood conference centre, effectively signals the beginning of the final stretch of Ramaphosa’s presidency, as the ANC now moves towards its 2027 elective conference.
According to reports, a national poll by the Social Research Foundation (SRF) shows a deeply contested field.
Patrice Motsepe Tops General Voter Preference
While Deputy President Paul Mashatile and ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula are typically the most cited hopefuls, the SRF poll has placed businessman and CAF president Patrice Motsepe at the front.
Motsepe—who has repeatedly stated he will not run—was included due to speculation that supporters may urge him to enter the race.
The poll reveals that Motsepe leads Mashatile by five percentage points among general voters. However, ANC members themselves appear divided, with a different set of preferences shaping the internal contest.
Among ANC supporters, Mbalula holds a 15% lead over Mashatile. Senior figures attending the NGC say the field is expanding further, with additional high-profile names emerging.
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Women Leaders Gain Momentum in ANC Presidential Race
The ANC Women’s League’s push for the party to elect its first female president has propelled two leaders into the conversation: Deputy Secretary-General Nomvula Mokonyane and National Assembly Speaker Thoko Didiza.
Neither has confirmed a presidential bid, yet insiders insist both are positioning themselves for the race. Mokonyane’s involvement in the Bosasa scandal, outlined in the State Capture Commission, continues to cast a shadow over her potential candidacy.
Didiza, reportedly supported by senior ANC leaders including Ramaphosa, is viewed by many as a reform-oriented option.
Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has also entered discussions, with reports suggesting he may be open to running for either president or deputy president of the party.
ANC Faces Pressure Amid Declining Membership and Election Losses
The heightened succession debate comes at a delicate moment. The ANC is still reeling from its loss of a parliamentary majority in the 2024 general elections and is attempting to stabilise and renew its structures.
At the NGC, the party revealed that paid-up membership has fallen sharply—from 1.4 million in 2020 to just over 540,000. Its organisational report delivered a rare moment of introspection, acknowledging that the “era of state capture… resulted in an unprecedented decline in state capacity and public trust.”
Despite the tension, party leaders attempted to downplay speculation. ANC national chairperson Gwede Mantashe dismissed the talk entirely, saying it was “premature” and clarifying he would not contest, “I’m more than 70 years old. I’m retiring.”
Ramokgopa similarly refused to entertain leadership questions, redirecting attention to his ministerial role, “Let’s focus on electricity. There is discipline in the ANC. Those conversations will come later,” he reportedly said.
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