The five most exciting head-to-head battles in the Oscars race

Winner of the best actor award at Cannes, he was widely considered a sure thing for an Oscar nomination until the Actor awards (previously the SAG awards) nominations were announced last week and Moura, along with every other performer in a film not in the English language, was left out. Since actors are the largest voting block among Academy Awards voters, that wasn’t a great sign. It’s true that Globes members (who are international journalists) are more likely to embrace a performance not in English, but still: that win puts Moura firmly back in the running. 

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3 and 4. Supporting actor and actress: Shaking up the races

Some years, one performer easily swoops up every major predictor award en route to the Oscars, the way Kieran Culkin did last year as supporting actor in A Real Pain – Golden Globe, Bafta, SAG award and Oscar, he got them all. This is not one of those years. The Globes’ supporting categories are, in fact, similar to the Oscars because they are not separated into drama and comedy. And this year’s Globes blew both supporting races wide open.

There was no real consensus about supporting actor going in, with Benicio del Toro considered slightly more likely to triumph for One Battle After Another over Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein. Del Toro had several critics’ groups awards and Elordi the Critics’ Choice. Stellan Skarsgård’s Globes win for the Norwegian film Sentimental Value adds a new twist. As with Moura, the international Globe voters may have been partial to a non-English-language performance. But Skarsgård now has “winner” written all over him and momentum moving forward.

Just four days before the Globes, the awards site Gold Derby wrote that Amy Madigan “jumps to No 1 in best supporting actress odds” for the horror film Weapons, after her wins at the Critics’ Choice Awards and with the New York and Los Angeles film critics groups. And after Teyana Taylor’s Globes win for One Battle After Another, a cheeky but accurate post on Vulture‘s live blog read, “RIP to Amy Madigan being the Oscar frontrunner (2025-26)”. Those swerves make the supporting races the least predictable of the year.

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5. Best picture: One Battle v Hamnet?

Paul Thomas Anderson gives acceptance speeches that are modest, smart, generous and short, which is handy, because he has been winning a lot. After its Globes victory in the best musical or comedy category, One Battle After Another is still the Oscar frontrunner for best picture. And Anderson’s wins for both director and screenplay (unlike the Oscars, the Globes don’t separate the screenwriting category into original and adapted) is such a sign of strength that One Battle is the safest Oscar bet of all.