Supreme Court Nominations
These 3 potential Supreme Court picks top ranks in ‘Trump Alignment Index’
Three federal appeals judges stand out as most likely to get a nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court by President Donald Trump based on an analysis of their rulings, writing and mentors, according to a political science professor and Supreme Court scholar who created the blog Empirical SCOTUS. (Image from Shutterstock)
Three federal appeals judges stand out as most likely to get a nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court by President Donald Trump based on an analysis of their rulings, writing and mentors, according to a political science professor and Supreme Court scholar who created the blog Empirical SCOTUS.
Writing at Legalytics on Substack, Adam Feldman explained his “Trump Alignment Index” and revealed the top scorers. Judge Andrew S. Oldham of the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals at New Orleans topped the list, followed by Judge James C. Ho of the 5th Circuit and Judge Neomi J. Rao of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.
For his analysis, Feldman randomly chose nine opinions for each judge and looked at how closely their language mirrors that of Trump’s former Supreme Court picks or Justice Samuel Alito and Justice Clarence Thomas. Next, Feldman evaluated writing style “from readability to rhetorical heat.” He searched for hot-button words, such as “tyranny,” “freedom” and “overreach.” Vivid language “fires up Trump’s base,” Feldman said. He also looked at precedents cited by the judges and wording supportive of presidential power.
After that, Feldman looked at “network capital,” including clerkships, especially clerkships with Thomas or Alito, U.S. Department of Justice roles and visibility.
Feldman explained why these three Trump appointees top his list.
• Oldham, 47, the best pick if Trump “wants a sure-thing vote and a Thomas-style pen.” Feldman said Oldham, who clerked for Alito, will likely get the nomination if that justice decides to step down. A former general counsel for Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Oldham scored a 91 out of 100 on Feldman’s Trump Alignment Index. He “checks every conservative box,” Felman wrote, with “Thomas-Alito citations, fiery language, near-perfect right-leaning outcomes.” He scored highest for hot-button word use, with 10 hot-button words per 1,000.
• Ho, 52, a good pick “if Trump wants headline fireworks.” Ho’s quotes—such as “To keep your job, you must violate your faith,” and, “This is a district court—not a Denny’s”—“will be flashed on committee screens—either as proof of constitutional fidelity or as evidence of activist zeal,” Feldman wrote. Feldman also noted Ho’s “boycott rhetoric” in which he pledged not to hire clerks from law schools that, in his opinion, canceled conservative views and mishandled protests. Feldman called Ho “the obvious pick” if there is a retirement by Thomas, for whom Ho was a law clerk. The clerkship bolsters a resumé that “checks every prestige box,” including a stint as Texas solicitor general. Ho scored an 88 on Feldman’s index. He also scored highest for “moral-charge language,” such as “dignity” and “tyranny.”
• Rao, 52, whose “perfect anti-agency record” is helpful “if shrinking the ‘deep state’ is priority No. 1.” She is a former Thomas law clerk and formerly led the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs in the Office of Management Budget, which Feldman described as “the nerve center for deregulation.” Rao uses short sentences with “almost no rhetorical fireworks,” exuding “policy wonk calm,” Feldman said. She scored an 83 on the alignment index.
Feldman analyzed the records of those judges, along with those of Judge Amul R. Thapar, 56, of the 6th Circuit at Cincinnati (with a score of 74); Judge Patrick J. Bumatay, 47, of the 9th Circuit at San Francisco (with a score of 70); and U.S. District Judge Aileen M. Cannon, 44, of the Southern District of Florida (with a score of 62). None of those judges clerked for a Supreme Court justice.
See also:
Who may be on Trump’s Supreme Court short list? Senate win aids judicial picks
Trump-appointed appeals judges are ‘superstars’ based on 3 measures, study says
Write a letter to the editor, share a story tip or update, or report an error.
