President Cyril Ramaphosa publicly signing into law the NHI Act in May 2024. (Photo: GCIS)Comment & Analysis
21st November 2025 | Spotlight
It is not a stretch to say that the NHI Act has been one of the most controversial pieces of legislation in post-apartheid South Africa.
Since President Cyril Ramaphosa signed it into law in May 2024, just two weeks ahead of the national and provincial elections, at least nine different court cases have been launched against the Act, or specific provisions in the Act. None of those cases have made it through the courts and it seems likely some might be combined.
In one preliminary to the bigger court battles, the North Gauteng High Court in Pretoria ordered Ramaphosa to provide the record of his decision to sign the act, but the President is challenging that order.
A subtext to the torrent of court cases is the sense that it is only through litigation that the NHI Act might be scrapped, or that some of the most controversial provisions in it might be repealed. The alternative to litigation, political compromise, for now seems dead in the water. There was some hope for such compromise around a year ago when Business Unity South Africa and several healthcare worker groups pushed government for a change in course – but while the Presidency seemed open to considering changes, the health minister did not, and eventually the ANC, and government with it, decided to buckle down behind their current NHI plans.
The door to political compromise could of course reopen should the balance of political power in the country change – as it will surely do after the 2029 elections, if not earlier.
To the courts then
There has been much media coverage of the various court cases challenging the NHI Act. Understandably, a lot of the public statements were aimed at drumming up public support for the various points of view. In the end, the courts will hopefully look past the rhetoric and politicking and judge the cases on their merits.
This is why in recent months Spotlight put substantial resources into combing through seemingly endless court papers and chatting to a variety of lawyers in an attempt to sift the wheat from the chaff. As with many other court cases we’ve reported on, we suspect the various NHI-related cases will in the end turn on just a few key legal questions. In a special two-part series, we tried to pin down what these key legal questions are likely to be – you can see part 1 here and part 2 here. (Thank you to the three lawyers we quote in the article, as well as those who shared their views, but opted not to be named and quoted.)
In our view, this crystallisation of the legal case against the NHI Act, and/or specific provisions in the Act, is the most notable NHI-related development this year. After all, a major ruling against the Act could make much else moot.
Other NHI developments
Meanwhile, the Department of Health is moving ahead on the assumption that NHI will be implemented as envisaged in the Act. The first formal step towards setting out the proposed governance structure and processes of the NHI Fund is underway with draft regulations that were published in the Government Gazette in March. Amongst others, the regulations provide for the appointment of the board of the NHI Fund, the fund’s chief executive officer, and for a benefits advisory committee and a healthcare benefits pricing committee. In the background here is the fact that, until the NHI Fund has been established as a public entity, it cannot be awarded a budget by parliament.
One source of funding for NHI could be the phasing out of medical scheme tax credits. This is according to a presentation by the National Health Department’s NHI lead, Dr Nicholas Crisp, who was addressing the Standing Committee on Appropriations in the National Assembly. The presentation notes that medical scheme tax credits could raise as much as R34bn for the NHI Fund by 2027/28. At the moment, eligible beneficiaries receive medical scheme tax credits to the value of R364 per month for the primary member, R364 for the first dependant, and R246 for each additional dependant. The rough idea is that tax credits would first be phased out for high-income earners. This would eventually be followed by the state scrapping medical scheme subsidies to civil servants.
But Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana seems unconvinced. He told BusinessDay: “It’s actually an attack on the middle class”.
And indeed, the proposed scrapping of medical aid subsidies has added fuel to suggestions that government is intentionally undermining the viability of private healthcare in South Africa. A set of recommendations on how to better regulate the country’s private healthcare sector remains largely unimplemented six years after being published. Government did publish draft regulations for tariff determination in the private sector in February, but, as we recently reported, those draft regulations have now been withdrawn. In fact, those draft regulations were so poorly thought out that one wonders whether they were a serious attempt at addressing the issue in the first place.
According to Crisp’s presentation, NHI could take “10, 15 or more” years to implement. There is some welcome realism in this. Rather absurdly, Section 57 of the NHI Act still states that it will be introduced in two phases, between 2023 and 2026, and between 2026 and 2028.
Several experts have suggested to Spotlight that, mainly for financial reasons, NHI is essentially dead in the water and that the more serious people in the government and the ANC know this. Few are however willing to say this publicly. Others, like Crisp and Health Minister Dr Aaron Motsoaledi, would of course beg to differ, and mean it.
Not the only solution
One thing that should not get lost in all this is that things really do need to change. Apart from being extremely unequal, much of the healthcare system in South Africa is deeply dysfunctional. But Motsoaledi is wrong when he suggests that the specific system set out in the NHI Act is the only possible solution. As we’ve previously argued, there are other viable paths to universal health coverage, even if the current set of leaders in the ANC refuses to seriously consider them.
One of the great tragedies of NHI is that for all the noise, we have never really had an informed public debate about the policy options and the reasons for going with one set of health reforms rather than another. There were few things as depressing as watching members of parliament’s portfolio committee for health reducing someone’s nuanced and constructive feedback on the Bill to a simple question of whether someone is for or against NHI. The ANC of course had a majority in parliament prior to the 2024 elections, so maybe there was a sense that they did not need to listen and do the hard work of engaging and bringing people along with them.
Either way, it now seems likely that in 2026, the courts will have to make one or more landmark rulings that will determine the future of NHI. We have some idea of what the key issues will be on which those cases will turn, but as to how the courts will decide, your guess is as good as ours.
