A win Monday night would send the United States to the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time since 2002. Standing in the way: ninth-ranked Belgium, a step up from the 17th-ranked Americans
But the data gives the U.S. a real case for advancing
Wide passing triangles have powered the American attack throughout the tournament. Three players link up in a triangle shape to move the ball forward — but the real engine is movement, not just passing. Every pass triggers a run, dragging defenders out of position and creating open space for teammates elsewhere on the pitch.
The graphic below traces the U.S. passing triangles from its first four games. The attack typically starts with Tyler Adams, Tim Ream, and Chris Richards trading passes before pushing up the flanks — Antonee Robinson, Christian Pulisic, and Malik Tillman on the left; Weston McKennie, Sergino Dest, and Alex Freeman on the right — all working to set up finishers for scoring chances
That triangle-based approach could be especially potent against Belgium, whose defense leans on a somewhat haphazard man-marking scheme, with defenders shadowing opponents closely to cut off the ball. Belgium ranks eighth in the tournament for “chasing,” or man-marking intensity. The encouraging sign for the U.S.: every team that chased more than Belgium is already out
Man-marking can smother build-up play and choke off playmakers — but the U.S. has shown an ability to make sharp, quick passes to evade pressure, and a knack for winning the ball back in midfield the moment possession slips away
Defensively, the U.S. faces a different challenge: Belgium’s attack. No remaining team fires more shots per game than Belgium’s tournament-high average of 23. However, many of those shots aren’t especially dangerous. Belgium’s average xG per shot, 0.075, ranks second-lowest among the teams left standing
Read more World Cup analysis on NGN Offside →
One player to watch is midfielder Kevin De Bruyne. Ten of his 18 shots have come outside the box, including his one goal
Data analysis provided by Brennan Klein, director for Northeastern University’s NetSI Sport research group.
