In an opinion piece published by elEconomista, Pep Ferrís, Head of CIB Asia, examines how geopolitics, artificial intelligence and the energy transition are reshaping the global economy and placing Asia at the heart of the new global balance.
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For more than three decades, the global economy was built around what seemed an unquestionable premise: economic incentives appeared to outweigh geopolitical frictions. Capital flowed wherever returns were highest, energy wasver production costs were lowest. Broadly speaking, the system worked. It fuelled one of the strongest growth cycles in modern history and accelerated the economic integration of much of the world
Today, that logic has changed. The war in Ukraine, the rivalry between the United States and China, trade sanctions, the technological race and the fragility of supply chains exposed by the pandemic have triggered a transformation far deeper than markets currently reflect. This is not a temporary disruption but a shift in era. We have moved, rapidly and most likely irreversibly, from a world designed to maximise efficiency to one focused on ensuring security and resilience. And in this new landscape, Asia occupies a pivotal position.
For years, the region was viewed from the West as the world’s factory: competitive, efficient and essential to global production, yet still subordinate to the traditional financial centres. That picture no longer holds.Asia is no longer merely a manufacturing platform; it is becoming one of the key arenas in which the financing, organisation and execution of twenty-first-century growth are being redefined.
Artificial intelligence and the energy transition are now the main drivers of this shift. AI has evolved beyond a purely technological cycle to become a strategic capability closely linked to competitiveness, industrial sovereignty and, increasingly, national security. Access to advanced semiconductors, computing power, data centres and resilient electricity networks is no longer viewed solely through a commercial lens, but also through a geopolitical one.
Asia is becoming one of the key arenas in which the financing, organisation and execution of twenty-first-century growth are being redefined.
Asia has established itself asthe principal industrial hub of this transformation. From the major technology powers of North-East Asia, China, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea ; to the emerging manufacturing centres of South-East Asia and India, the region accounts for a growing share of global investment linked to digitalisation, advanced manufacturing and the reorganisation of supply chains. The “China+1” strategy has further accelerated this redistribution of productive capacity. Asia is increasingly operating as a network of specialised ecosystems that compete and co-operate simultaneously.
This is reinforced by China’s leadership across numerous strategic sectors, particularly renewable energy. The country has become a global powerhouse capable of exporting solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles and clean technologies at scale, helping to reduce the cost of the energy transition worldwide.
Yet this new phase is also creating tensions. Theenergy transition and the artificial intelligence revolution compete for many of the same physical reansformers and specialised talent. And unlike financial capital, these constraints cannot be resolved quickly
The result is an economy that is more inflationary, more investment-intensive and structurally more complex. Many companies are moving away from “asset-light” models in order to secure supply chains, industrial capacity and access to strategic rears ago — “Europe for Europe” or “China for China” — have become part of the everyday corporate vocabulary
In a sense, we are leaving behind the era of globally optimised supply chains to build more resilient economic strongholds. This is where one of the major challenges for the international financial system emerges. For years, financing growth primarily meant providing capital. Today, companies require much more: partners capable of combining structured financing, regulatory risk management, access to international markets and geopolitical insight.
Regulatory fragmentation has also become one of the major hidden costs of globalisation. Multinational companies increasingly find themselves operating between competing regulatory, technological and strategic frameworks driven by the United States, Europe and China. In this context, cities such as Hong Kong are taking on renewed relevance. Far from losing importance, Hong Kong may consolidate its position as one of the leading connectivity platforms of the new multipolar economy: a bridge between international capital and Asian opportunity; between Chinese companies and global investors; and between increasingly fragmented financial systems.
In a world shaped by geopolitical rivalry,the ability to connect different systems is beginning to carry as much value as the ability to generate growth. This is, perhaps, the defining change of our time. Globalisation is not disappearing. It is evolving. The optimism of the efficiency era has given way to the realism of the security era. Yet realism should not lead to pessimism, but rather to a new form of strategic thinking.
The institutions, companies and countries that will lead the next decade will not necessarily be the largest, but those most capable of building resilience, understanding the new interdependencies and adapting more quickly than others to the rules of an economic order that is already changing.
And in this quiet redesign of the global economy, Asia is not merely accelerating the transformation. It is also beginning to write the rules.
- Enterprises
- International expansion
