A Super El Niño is coming: Five hard‑won lessons the world can learn from Africa

A Super El Niño is coming: Five hard‑won lessons the world can learn from Africa

A Super El Niño is coming: Five hard‑won lessons the world can learn from Africa

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Experts say Africa’s decades of experience managing droughts, floods and food insecurity offer critical lessons on climate resilience as one of the strongest El Niño events on record is forecast to develop

Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Mendy Ndlovu, University of KwaZulu-Natal

Climate prediction scientists announced in June 2026 that El Niño, a cycle that happens every two to seven years, had formed. It was expected to develop into one of the strongest on record – a “super” El Niño.
El Niño happens when the surface of the Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm. It can alter weather patterns worldwide, often leading to extreme events such as droughts, floods and heatwaves.

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In southern Africa, it causes hot, dry weather. In a previous cycle, this pushed 18 million people into hunger.
In East and Central Africa, it has brought heavy rain and flooding that previously destroyed over 600,000 homes, along with farmland and health services. In West Africa, it has reduced harvests, raised food prices, and left families struggling with food shortages for years after the event.

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A “super” El Niño is caused by Pacific Ocean temperatures rising far more than normal. Parts of the Pacific are expected to be about 3°C warmer than average by the end of 2026.
There have only been three other super El Niño events in modern records (since 1982). The most recent, in 2015-16, pushed more than 36 million people across east and southern Africa into hunger. The effects were felt through food and nutrition security, water scarcity, health access and livelihoods.
The prospect of this happening again has triggered concern, understandably.
My research has shown how Africa, with high levels of poverty, underdevelopment and weak infrastructure, is very exposed to climate risks which damage food systems and health.
Focusing only on risk, however, tells only one side of the story.
African countries have spent decades coping and adapting to repeated cycles of droughts, floods, rainfall variability and food insecurity. The continent has built valuable experience in managing multiple harsh conditions.
The world needs to pay more attention to the knowledge, practices and adaptation strategies that African communities, institutions and researchers have developed through experience. As climate impacts intensify globally, these experiences offer valuable lessons for building resilience.
The five hard-won lessons
1. Preparedness is better than response: Across Africa, governments, researchers, humanitarian organisations and communities have recognised the value of taking action before disasters happen. Early warning systems, making plans and getting support ready can help reduce losses before they become humanitarian emergencies. There are still gaps in early warning systems, but on the whole, Africa’s Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Early Action Situation Room and the systems in countries are becoming stronger. Progress is mainly slowed down by a lack of finance.

In a super El Niño, droughts, food insecurity, and the damage to health systems are much more severe. Being prepared means that communities can protect their livelihoods and avoid having to use up all their savings or borrow money to recover.
2. Indigenous and climate-resilient crops are part of the solution: Africa’s agricultural future can’t continue to depend entirely on a limited number of staple crops like maize and wheat that are increasingly vulnerable to climate stress. My research has highlighted the potential of neglected and underutilised crops such as sorghum, millet, bambara groundnut and cowpea. African communities have long cultivated these crops. They’re better adapted to harsh growing conditions than many conventional staple crops.
3. Water, energy, food and health cannot be treated separately: Climate impacts rarely stay within a single sector. A drought affects crop production. Reduced harvests affect food prices and nutrition. Water shortages place pressure on health systems. Energy disruptions can affect irrigation, healthcare delivery and economic activity. El Niño’s effects cascade across agriculture, water access, nutrition and health.
There are connections between water, energy, food, environmental sustainability and health. Because these problems often happen together in Africa, countries have learned that the best solutions look at them together, not one by one.
4. The biggest limitation is finance, not knowledge: Across the continent, researchers, farmers, practitioners and institutions have developed ways of preparing for climate risks. More funding is needed. Development finance, climate change adaptation grants and concessional finance could help vulnerable countries and communities who cannot borrow on normal market terms to get the money they need for irrigation, health facilities and roads.
Funding is also needed for smallholder farmers to insure their crops and livestock. Governments need money to pay for social protection and cash transfers. These provide safety nets in case of disaster, so families are not forced to sell assets or take their children out of school.
Many of these solutions are already known and tested. The challenge is in scaling them up. Climate adaptation finance to Africa remains far below what’s needed. The money promised is released slowly, the conditions for getting it are strict, governments are often required to put in some of their own money and the accounting systems are not always matched to local systems.
This often prevents proven interventions from reaching the communities that need them most.
5. Partnership must replace paternalism: Climate resilience can’t be built through one-way relationships where solutions are designed elsewhere and delivered to African communities.
Effective resilience depends on local ownership, trusted institutions and the ability of countries and communities to create or adapt solutions to their own contexts.
Africa needs partnerships built on mutual learning, shared goals and recognition of existing expertise. This means strengthening institutions, expanding capabilities, supporting enabling networks and creating more flexible and diverse financing mechanisms.
A super El Niño will test Africa’s systems, institutions and communities once again. But it can also show that Africa is a source of climate knowledge, adaptation experience and practical solutions developed under some of the most challenging conditions on Earth.
***
Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, Professor of Climate Change, Food Systems and Health and Director of The Lancet Countdown in Africa, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Mendy Ndlovu, Agrometeorologist and Researcher in the Sustainable and Healthy Food Systems – Southern Africa programme, University of KwaZulu-Natal

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This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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