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Published on: 21 Jul 2026, 11:58 am
Summary
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A new study suggests Africa’s wildfire season has become shorter over the past three decades.
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Researchers found the dry season is now starting later, with rainfall arriving at a time when landscapes would normally begin drying out.
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Wetter soils and vegetation appear to be reducing fuel dryness, limiting fire ignition and spread.
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The findings suggest rainfall timing, not just total rainfall, could improve wildfire prediction and fire management.
Africa’s wildfire season has become shorter over the past three decades because rains are arriving later than they used to, a new study suggests.
The continent accounts for about 70 per cent of the world’s burned area each year, making it the planet’s biggest wildfire hotspot. But satellite observations have shown a steady decline in the amount of land burned across Africa over the past two decades.
A study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters says the timing of rainfall, not just the total amount of rain, may help explain why.
Researchers analysed daily rainfall records from three independent datasets covering 1990 to 2023. They then compared them with satellite observations of burned area and fire counts from 2003 to 2022.
Wetter starts to the dry season behind it?
The study found that Africa’s dry season has become shorter, mainly because it now begins later in both northern and southern parts of the continent.
In northern Africa, the onset of the dry season has been delayed by about 1.75 days per decade, while southern Africa has seen a smaller delay of about 0.4 days per decade.
The researchers said rainfall has increased at the start of what would normally be the dry season. These early showers keep soil and vegetation wetter for longer, reducing the dryness of grasses and other fuels that allow fires to ignite and spread.
The effect was reflected in widespread declines in burned area across Africa, with the strongest reductions during peak fire months — December in northern Africa and August in southern Africa.
Rainfall timing offers new clues
The link between a shorter dry season and reduced burned area was strongest in northern Africa. In southern Africa, the relationship was weaker, suggesting that land use, agriculture, roads, fire management and other human activities may also be influencing fire patterns.
The authors said satellite data can miss smaller fires, and the study does not distinguish between natural fires and those deliberately started for farming or land management.
The findings could help improve fire forecasts, which often focus on rainfall totals, temperature and drought. The study suggests that paying closer attention to when rain falls could help predict when landscapes are likely to become flammable.
It also highlights how climate change can reshape seasonal patterns, with consequences for ecosystems even when annual rainfall changes only slightly.
Ecosystems
RAINFALL PATTERNS
Africa wildfires
Wildfire season
Dry season
Burned area
Fire prediction
African climate
