June 30 is no longer just a protest date.
It has become a pressure point in South Africa’s already tense debate about illegal immigration, border control, unemployment, crime and the state’s ability to enforce its own laws.
The difficulty is that illegal immigration is, by nature, hidden and hard to measure.
Estimates of undocumented migrants in South Africa range widely, from about 2.5 million to as many as 12 million, depending on the source and methodology used.
That uncertainty matters because it leaves room for fear, politics and public frustration to fill the gaps.
The protest is about illegal immigration. But it is also about money, jobs, public services, corruption, politics, the Constitution and South Africa’s relationship with the rest of the continent.
That is why we should examine the June 30 protests through three lenses: the economy, the politics behind the mobilisation, and the potential traffic and public safety risks on the day.
Economic impact
The economic impact of illegal immigration is felt most sharply through the fiscus, the informal labour market and public services.
Enforcement is expensive. Studies have described illegal migration as placing a significant strain on public finances because of the costs associated with policing, detention and deportation.
Repeated deportations have also been criticised as a waste of taxpayers’ money when people return shortly after being repatriated.
Then there is the labour market.
Undocumented migrants are understood to be concentrated in the informal economy, where some estimates place them at about 18.3% of workers, or around 700,000 people.
Because many accept wages below market rates, they can become a source of tension with local workers and may place downward pressure on wages in low-skilled sectors.
But the picture is not one-sided. Some economists argue that migrants also create demand, start small businesses and contribute to GDP growth in labour-intensive industries such as agriculture, mining, construction, hospitality and informal trade.
Public services are another flashpoint.
There is a widespread perception that undocumented migrants place pressure on hospitals, clinics, schools, housing and social grants. Some may access services using fraudulent documents, while others contribute to the fiscus by paying value-added tax when purchasing goods, partially offsetting their fiscal cost.
The system also creates opportunities for corruption. Tougher immigration rules have fuelled a black market for documentation, with some studies suggesting widespread corruption among Home Affairs officials dealing with migrants attempting to remain in the country unlawfully.
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