The decision by the administration of US President Donald Trump and Israel to launch coordinated military strikes against Iran on 28 February 2026, and Iran’s subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation, has delivered a severe external shock to the African continent.
What began as a distant geopolitical confrontation has rapidly translated into a tangible economic crisis for African nations. The United States, having declared on 13 July that it would serve as the waterway’s “guardian” and impose a 20% toll on all cargo shipped through it, has made clear its intention to assert control over the strategic chokepoint. Africa is bearing the economic consequences, a reality laid bare by official assessments that have accumulated since the conflict began.
The most immediate impact has been a significant downgrade to the continent’s growth prospects. A joint report by the African Union, the African Development Bank, and UN agencies, presented at the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in April 2026, warns that escalating Middle East tensions could reduce Africa’s economic growth by 0.2 percentage points this year. The initial optimism of a projected 4.0% growth rate has been dimmed by the conflict.
The economic slowdown has been driven by a surge in inflation, eroding household purchasing power. Analysts project an average inflation rate of 10.4% for 2026. The depreciation of local currencies against a resurgent US dollar has compounded the problem. By April 2026, at least 27 African currencies were reported to have depreciated, with the Libyan dinar down by over 17% and the Ghanaian cedi by more than 10% since the start of the year. This currency weakness makes imports more expensive, fueling inflation and making it costlier for governments to service foreign-currency-denominated debts. African Union Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf warned that the conflict carries “significant implications for global energy markets,” with “rising fuel prices, increased inflationary pressures and heightened economic vulnerability.”
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of globally traded crude oil and gas flows, has been the primary driver of these shocks. Crude prices have surged from below $100 a barrel to over $118. The crisis has left over 1,200 cargo vessels, carrying an estimated $125 billion worth of goods, stranded in the Persian Gulf. According to IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, energy-importing African nations have been hit disproportionately hard, with fuel shortages in Ethiopia, Malawi, and Zambia, and gasoline prices rising by about 50% in Lesotho, Rwanda, and Tanzania.
Beyond energy, the blockade has disrupted fertilizer supply, threatening food security. Africa relies on the Middle East for 80% of its imported oil and 50% of its refined products. The conflict has led to a 30% increase in fertilizer prices. For Africa, where agriculture employs 60% to 70% of the workforce, this threatens the March-May planting season. The impact of these shocks is not uniform across the continent. Oil-exporting nations like Nigeria and Angola may see short-term revenue gains from elevated crude prices, but these are offset by broader inflation and increased import costs. The most severe strain is felt by net energy importers like Kenya, Senegal, Morocco, and Ghana.
South Africa, the continent’s most industrialised economy, illustrates these pressures vividly. The country refines less than 35% of its domestic fuel consumption. From April to June 2026, petrol rose by over R7.00 per litre in some areas, contributing to an inflation spike of 4.5% in May. The agricultural sector faces higher diesel costs and a 50% year-on-year increase in fertiliser prices. In May, the Reserve Bank raised interest rates, slowing an economy that grew by just 0.5% in the first quarter of 2026.
The pressure on fiscal space has become so acute that Senegal has banned non-essential foreign travel for ministers. Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko stated that the national budget, based on $62-per-barrel oil, is untenable with prices at $115. Meanwhile, rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope has increased traffic by 250%, but South African ports have failed to monetise this surge.
Namibia, sharing a border with South Africa and relying on similar supply chains, has not been spared from this anxiety. President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, during her Independence Day address, stated that “the large-scale war between the US, Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran is of great concern and could negatively impact our economy.” Her warning underscores how a distant geopolitical confrontation has become an immediate national worry for countries across the continent. The geopolitical conflict has intensified competition for critical minerals central to the energy transition, shaping the long-term position of resource-rich African nations beyond the immediate suffering in fuel and food prices.
The events of the past months carry a broader diplomatic lesson for the continent. The United States, in partnership with Israel, unilaterally abandoned a standing ceasefire understanding with Iran to pursue military action. For African nations that have looked to Washington as a partner, this raises questions about reliability. The same administration that seeks African support has shown that its commitments are contingent and revocable. This is a reality African leaders must factor into future calculations.
The US-Iran conflict has exposed the structural fragility of African economies. The data confirms a “serious risk” to stability, with slowed growth, rampant inflation, depreciating currencies, and a threat to food security. The continent remains a price-taker, its economies at the mercy of geopolitical turbulence it cannot control. The upcoming SADC forum in August presents an opportunity for collective action where member states must work out common solutions for cross-border payments, energy security, and establish a sovereign SADC system independent of the United States. Reducing dependence on external actors who disrupt global stability for strategic gain is no longer optional. It is an economic necessity. Leaders should condemn the unilateral actions of the United States and assert the region’s collective sovereignty, refusing to continue absorbing the costs of distant conflicts.
