SAWS says climate models point to a rapid shift from neutral conditions towards El Niño over the coming months, with the weather pattern expected to strengthen into the 2026/27 summer season.
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According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), climate models indicate that El Niño is likely to develop in the coming months. The organisation says the phenomenon typically increases the chances of above-normal temperatures in many parts of southern Africa.
As El Niño is forecast to intensify, the risk of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall & other extreme weather is increasing. The WMO community steps up coordination, climate info services & #EarlyWarnings to help countries prepare for potential impacts.
➡️ https://t.co/hgILfdYYs7pic.twitter.com/H5nKxdtr5d
— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) July 14, 2026
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SAWS says climate models point to a rapid shift from neutral conditions towards El Niño over the coming months, with the weather pattern expected to strengthen into the 2026/27 summer season.
It may begin thousands of kilometres away in the Pacific Ocean, yet El Niño has a knack for reshaping weather patterns across the globe, including South Africa.
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Prof Francois Engelbrecht, director of the Global Change Institute at the University of the Witwatersrand, has previously warned that climate change is increasing heat extremes across southern Africa.
‘Global warming loads the dice towards more frequent and intense heatwaves and El Niño can further increase the likelihood of exceptionally hot summers in southern Africa.’
Fun fact:
El Niño usually appears every two to seven years and can last for up to a year, influencing everything from crop harvests in Africa to rainfall in South America.
SAWS expects above-normal temperatures across most of the country during the coming months. For many South Africans, that could mean warmer afternoons, higher electricity use as fans and air conditioners work overtime, and extra pressure on water re
The weather service says communities should remain alert to heat-related health risks and localised flooding and advises farmers and disaster management teams to monitor its monthly seasonal outlooks as forecasts are updated.
Summer is still a few months away and SAWS stresses that seasonal forecasts will continue to be updated.
There is no need to shelve those summer plans just yet. SAWS updates its seasonal outlook every month, so there is still time for the forecast to evolve. For now, it may be worth keeping the sunscreen, hat and reusable water bottle within easy reach.
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SAWS predicts intense heat and flooding this summer as El Niño hits SA
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