The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that El Niño conditions are likely to develop in the coming months. (Photo: World Meteorological Organisation)
The looming return of El Niño is expected to place fresh pressure on global food supplies, with the World Bank warning that the weather phenomenon could trigger sharp declines in crop production and worsen food insecurity across vulnerable economies through 2027.
The lender estimates there is a 61 to 87 per cent probability that El Niño will develop by mid-2026 and persist into 2027, threatening agricultural output at a time when global food systems are already under strain from rising production costs, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical shocks.
If the climate pattern materialises, rice production could fall by between 20 and 50 per cent, with South Asia, Southern Africa and parts of East Asia expected to be the hardest hit.
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Although East Africa is not expected to experience the largest production losses, the World Bank warns that the region remains highly vulnerable due to ongoing humanitarian crises and fragile food systems.
Food insecurity remains severe in Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan, where conflict, displacement and climate shocks continue to restrict access to food.
Across Eastern and Southern Africa, between 44 million and 47 million people currently require food assistance, with the greatest burden falling on countries facing overlapping economic, security and climate-related challenges.
Looking ahead, the lender warns that El Niño-driven high temperatures and below-average rainfall could suppress crop production, reduce household incomes and further limit access to food across parts of East Africa in 2027, slowing efforts to rebuild livelihoods.
The climate threat comes as farmers around the world continue to grapple with rising production costs.
Fertiliser prices rose by 35 per cent during the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period last year, while global production of major cereals is expected to decline from the record harvests recorded in 2025.
The projected decline is attributed to higher input costs, adverse weather conditions and weaker incentives for farmers to plant.
“Global food and nutrition security is becoming more fragile, as geopolitical shocks, climate risks, and rising input costs converge to strain food systems and household resilience,” the World Bank said.
While global food supplies remain broadly adequate, the World Bank says higher costs and continued climate uncertainty are keeping food markets under pressure, increasing the risk that hard-won gains in poverty reduction and food security could be reversed, particularly in low-income and fragile economies.
The lender says strengthening agricultural resilience, investing in climate-smart farming and protecting vulnerable households will be critical as governments prepare for the possible return of El Niño and its ripple effects on food production, prices and livelihoods through 2027.
