The record-breaking heat that’s scorching Europe day and night this month would not have been possible without climate change, according to a new study
The World Weather Attribution rapid study released Friday (local time) found that the heat would have been virtually impossible just five decades ago, and is 200 times more likely today than it would have been 20 years ago
Millions in France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and elsewhere in Europe are experiencing extreme temperatures and humidity this week associated with a heat dome. Daytime temperatures have topped 40C in many places, while high nighttime temperatures have also made it harder to cool down and recover
The scientists estimated that a heat wave with similar characteristics occurring in the climate of June 1976 would have been about 3.5C cooler during the day and about 2C cooler in 2003. The nighttime temperatures would have been about 2.4C cooler in June 1976 and about 1.3C cooler in 2003
They chose 1976 and 2003 for comparison because those years saw extreme heat in Europe
“The increase in temperatures was so dramatic that we would have expected to have never seen this event in the 1976 climate,” said the study’s lead author Theodore Keeping, also a climate scientist at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London. “And it would also still have been very, very rare, even 23 years ago in 2003.”
Climate change is the driving force behind the heat
World Weather Attribution, a Europe-based collaborative of scientists who study the causes of global extreme weather events, began assessing in 2015 the extent to which those could be attributed to climate change caused by the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas. The organisation’s rapid attribution studies, including this one, aren’t peer-reviewed but use peer-reviewed methodology.
The current study used observed temperature data and forecasts for an analysis of the heat wave that started on June 18
It also found that 45% of the 850 cities analysed across 30 European countries have broken, or are expected to hit, records for heat stress levels, a measure that includes humidity and temperature
“It directly relates to the heat stress on the human body and our ability to cool ourselves down, and it’s a really good metric for the expected health impacts we expect to see from this heat wave,” Keeping said. Heat and humidity make for a dangerous combination for humans
Ultimately, this marks the most severe heat wave to have ever been recorded in this region of Europe and most severe humid heat event, WWA researchers said
Europe is especially unequipped for these extreme temperatures
Europe is the world’s fastest-warming continent, with temperatures increasing at twice the speed as the global average since the 1980s, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. In a separate study last year, WWA researchers found there were about 1,500 climate change-caused deaths during a European heat wave last summer
This week, weather agencies across Europe have issued red alerts about heat risks, and sporting events, schools, public transportation and attractions have been limited as a result. Many of these countries do not have widespread air conditioning or other infrastructure to account for warmer climates. France, which has been bearing much of the brunt of the heat wave, recorded its hottest day ever this week, and has also reported 40 deaths from drownings as people seek cooling relief.
The WWA scientists said the current El Niño warming cycle did not influence this heat
Europe also experienced record-shattering high temperatures in May. Typically, Europe does not see dramatically warmer weather until July and August
The findings of the study released Friday are reasonable, but may downplay climate change’s role in the heat, said Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania who was not involved in the research
“If anything, this latest assessment — and all similar assessments — are actually underestimating the role that climate change is playing here,” said Mann, who has separately studied how climate change is increasing heat stress in North America
The extreme conditions have come in June, earlier in the summer than is usual. Records are tumbling by day and by night. Add in the humidity and it’s more tropical than temperate
Saturday 5:00pm
Many of Paris’ buildings that look picturesque from the outside are proving to be hostile during the unrelenting record heat
Thu, Jun 25
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Weather agencies warned that the extreme conditions could endanger lives across countries, many of which have limited air conditioning
Thu, Jun 25
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Keeping, the study author, said the Europe heat wave shows the need to adapt infrastructure and behaviour to extreme temperatures
“We need to expect them to happen. They’re only going to become more frequent in the near term,” Keeping said. “We also need to address the issions from burning fossil fuels.”
