The leaders of the Maghreb have always insisted on the establishment of a Greater Maghreb. Beyond the current upheavals, what is the importance of this economic area?
The countries of the Greater Maghreb do not have a homogeneous economy. Some are energy importers and the rise in prices has repercussions on their unstable external accounts, as is the case with Morocco, Tunisia and Mauritania. For the latter, this should change this year thanks to the significant gas discoveries being exploited with Senegal.
Algeria and Libya, hydrocarbon exporting countries, enjoy an income that allows them to have favourable financial accounts.
The main trade flows of the five Maghreb countries are towards Europe and more generally towards the West, but with a significant breakthrough in China. The intra-Maghreb integration rate of 3% in 2023 is very low, and the intra-African integration rate of 15% is itself quite low.
Main economic indicators for the Maghreb countries
Algeria
For a population of 47.78 million on 1 January 2024, the IMF forecasts a GDP at current prices of $270 billion in 2024, $326 billion in 2026, and $370 billion in 2027. The growth rate for 2023 was 4.2%, with a forecast of 3.8% in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025.
Foreign exchange reserves at the end of January 2023 were $70 billion and around $83 billion including 173 tonnes of gold. External debt is low at less than 2% of GDP. Overall public debt rose from 45.6% of GDP in 2019 to 51.4% in 2020, 56.1% in 2021, 55.6% in 2022, 49.5% in 2023 and 47% in 2024.
Morocco
For a population of 37.77 million, Morocco’s GDP growth, according to the IMF, was 2.8% in 2023 with estimates of 3.1% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025. GDP is expected to reach $197.9 billion in 2023 and $193.2 billion in 2024. According to Bpifrance, the public debt in relation to GDP was 72.2% in 2020, 71.5% in 2022, and 69.7% in 2023 with a forecast of 68.1% in 2024. The external debt to GDP ratio is 54% in 2021, 51% in 2022-2023 and an estimated 44% for 2024. According to Global Research, reserves reached 363 billion dirhams in March 2023, or $35.5 billion, including 22 tonnes of gold.
Tunisia
For a population of 12.54 million as of 1 January 2024, Tunisia’s GDP in 2023 was $46.3 billion (+0.6%); growth is expected to reach 2.2% in 2024. The external debt in relation to GDP fell from 96% in 2021 to 90.8% in 2022, then to 86.4% in 2023 with a forecast of 86.3% in 2024.
Foreign exchange reserves were $4.2 billion in 2021, $3.2 billion in 2022, $3.5 billion in 2023 with a forecast of $3.2 billion in 2024. Public debt represented 80.2% of GDP in 2023, with a forecast of 79.8% in 2024.
Libya
With a population of 6.95 million, Libya has the largest oil reserves in Africa, around 43 billion barrels. Since the beginning of April 2024, it has been the leading producer in Africa with 1.24 million barrels/day, dethroning Nigeria, and has little-exploited conventional gas reserves of around 1,500 billion cubic metres. Libya has a GDP of $47 billion with growth of 12% in 2021, 4.6% in 2022, 9% in 2023 and 8.0% in 2024 thanks to the recovery of the hydrocarbon sector.
According to the World Bank, the current surplus, which reached 21% of GDP in 2022, was reduced to 7.8% of GDP in 2023. Public debt was estimated at $33 billion at the end of 2022, or 83% of GDP, and according to the BCL, the government was 90.5% indebted to the Central Bank. Libya also has a sovereign wealth fund (the Libyan Investment Authority) with assets estimated at $70 billion, which remain inaccessible due to the sanctions in force since 2011.
Mauritania
The population of Mauritania is estimated at 4.245 million in 2023 and the GDP was $8.36 billion in 2020, $9.22 billion and $9.78 billion in 2022. According to the IMF, real GDP growth slowed from 6.4% in 2022 to 3.4% in 2023, due to a significant contraction in public investment and a slowdown in exports due to a decline in production.
The Mauritanian economy is expected to grow by an average of 6% between 2024 and 2027, thanks to discoveries in new gas fields and other projects for the production of hydrogen and uranium production. The debt-to-GDP ratio increased slightly to 48.1% of GDP in 2023 due to the depreciation of the exchange rate at the end of the year. Foreign exchange reserves of $1.8 billion fell from 4.5 months of goods imports in 2022 to six months in 2023.
The overall GDP in 2023 of all the Maghreb countries does not exceed 520 billion dollars for a population of around 110 million inhabitants, a GDP almost equivalent to that of Belgium: 554 billion dollars for a population of barely 12 million inhabitants.
The world GDP is 101.3 trillion dollars. Together, the five countries of the Greater Maghreb represent only a tiny 0.053% of world GDP in 2023. This shows the importance of building the Greater Maghreb as a matter of extreme urgency in order to exploit its immense potential and ensure the economic and social development of the region.
Let us hope for regional stability and development that reason will prevail over passions. The Maghreb political leaders have always insisted on the establishment of a Greater Maghreb. In the 21st century, faced with new geostrategic and economic changes, the Greater Maghreb of the peoples can become a force for stability and prosperity in the Mediterranean and African regions. Its future is to serve as a bridge to Africa, the continent of all challenges.
