These three Ligue 1 fixtures have the potential to deliver goals based on last season’s performances, head-to-head record, and goal trends.
The BTTS & over 2.5 goals markets are worth backing in Ligue 1’s opening weekend, with all six teams similarly ending last season.
| Matchday 1 Fixtures in Ligue 1 | Selection | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille vs Strasbourg | BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals | 1.64 |
| PSG vs Rennes | BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals | 1.66 |
| Toulouse vs Lyon | BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals | 1.87 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Can last season’s scoring trends guide Ligue 1’s opening weekend?
Ligue 1 returns in late August, and there’s evidence to suggest that we can expect the goals to flow freely in certain matches. Paris Saint-Germain won their fifth league title on the bounce, but they didn’t have it all their way through the campaign. The Parisians were pushed hard this time around and won the title by just six points – a close finish compared to previous seasons.
Lens were the surprise outfit from last season, as they finished runners-up and pushed PSG as far as they could. Surprisingly, Nantes and Metz were sent down to Ligue 2, which came as a shock for the former. However, Nice went into the relegation playoffs and survived after beating St Etienne 4-1 in their home leg.
That sets up another exciting Ligue 1 season on the horizon, and we’re expecting the goals trend to continue, at least for three fixtures. The opening weekend sees Marseille welcome Strasbourg to the Orange Velodrome, Toulouse and Lyon clash at the Stadium de Toulouse, and Paris Saint-Germain lock horns with Rennes at the Parc des Princes.
All six teams have seen the BTTS and Over 2.5 goals market regularly over the course of last term, scoring freely but also conceding regularly. As a result, we’re expecting a lively opening weekend, which is where bettors can capitalise.
However, Matchday 1 is never a copy-and-paste exercise from the previous campaign. Summer recruitment, tactical tweaks, and managerial turnover can change the picture quickly. Paris FC replacing Antoine Kombouare with Liam Rosenior is just one reminder that the division doesn’t stand still, even before a ball is kicked.
Marseille and Strasbourg have the ingredients for a fiery opener
Friday night at the Velodrome is where the Ligue 1 season will kick off, and this fixture is the clearest option for the BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals market. The home side ranked alongside PSG as the most friendly for the over 2.5 goals pick, specifically at home. Marseille saw 12 of their 17 league fixtures in their backyard produce over 2.5 goals, equating to 71%.
Bruno Genesio is the new man in the home dugout, and he will hope that his team can continue their efficiency in front of goal this term. The hosts were the league’s joint-most prolific at home, scoring 41 goals alongside PSG. Marseille saw 65% of their home games finish with both teams scoring, as opposed to 35% of their away dates.
Strasbourg’s numbers were similar, especially in the BTTS market, as 65% of all their league games produced goals at both ends. Additionally, on their travels, 11 of 17 such fixtures saw the goal count rise to above two on the day.
The end of the last campaign also strengthens the case for the pick. Marseille signed off with a 3-1 win over Rennes, while Strasbourg were involved in a topsy-turvy 5-4 victory over Monaco. In their two league meetings last season, the teams played out a 2-2 draw and a 2-1 result. Therefore, both matches successfully hit our selection.
PSG and Rennes bring volatile recent league history to Paris
The French Champions enjoyed a positive campaign at the Parc des Princes last term, as they were joint-top scorers with 41 goals in front of their fans. PSG also shared a stat with Marseille in that 71% of their league games at home produced over 2.5 goals. With the majority of PSG’s big players involved late into the World Cup, fatigue could play its part.
Ousmane Dembele, Desire Doue, Bradley Barcola, and Zaire-Emery are just some of the names involved with France in North America. Fabian Ruiz is another who went all the way and enjoyed lifting the World Cup. These players may not feature in the opening game because of tired legs, leaving the door open for Rennes.
Rennes finished last season on a seven-game streak of over 2.5 goals, the longest across the division. On the road, no other team landed the over 2.5 goals pick more than Rennes, as 13 of 17 (76%) such games produced the same outcome. In fact, no other team saw the goal count rise to above two more than the Red and Blacks at any venue, as 24 of their 34 games ended as such.
Franck Haise’s men scored 59 and conceded 50 in 2025/26, with BTTS landing in 20 of their 34 league games. Last season’s head-to-head fixtures ended in a 3-1 home victory for Rennes against PSG, while the match in Paris finished with a 5-0 scoreline to the hosts. Luis Enrique’s charges rarely need motivation to find the net.
Toulouse league double to serve as motivation
Toulouse beat Lyon 2-1 in both league meetings last season, effectively costing the visitors a guaranteed spot in this term’s Champions League. Paulo Fonseca will no doubt remind his players of both defeats they suffered at the hands of Toulouse last term. For this reason, we expect Lyon to be highly motivated for this opening league fixture.
That repeated scoreline matters because the wider season BTTS data is less convincing here than in the other two featured matches. Toulouse saw both teams score in 16 of 34 league games last season, while Lyon finished on 17 of 34. The better argument comes from the shape of the matchup itself and how Toulouse ended the campaign.
Not considering their final abandoned game against Nantes, Toulouse finished the season with four consecutive games in which both teams scored. Their final six saw the goal count rise to above 2.5 goals. Toulouse’s last six matches saw 23 goals, an average of 3.93 per 90.
Lyon finished their league campaign similarly, as all five final fixtures ended with three goals or more scored. Only Monaco, Strasbourg, and Rennes recorded more BTTS & over 2.5 goals winning selections in Ligue 1 last season than Lyon’s 16 of 34 matches. As a result, backing this market is worthwhile, but it’s certainly the least likely of the three games, according to the bookmakers.
