US President Donald Trump will turn his focus to the Middle East on Monday, as he hosts Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Florida for talks that are expected to cover Gaza and a range of other pressing issues.
Any decisions made could have a potentially momentous impact on questions that determine the future of the region.
The US has been Israel’s strongest military and political backer throughout two years of war in Gaza and many are now looking to the meeting as a test of the leaders’ relationship and how aligned they are on key topics.
It will be their sixth meeting since Trump’s return to office 11 months ago.
Among the expected points of discussion is the future of relations with Syria’s new government, Iranian rearmament, and Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon.
Perhaps most critically, they will discuss progress of the Gaza ceasefire deal, where Israel’s government has taken several positions diverging from those of the US government.
The talks will take place as storms continue to lash Gaza, where hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians remain living in basic tents that offer little protection from the cold and flooding.
On Monday, the death of a two-month-old baby due to the severe cold was reported by the Hamas-run health ministry, bringing the total killed by the wintry weather since 10 December to three, while another 17 people have been killed by damaged buildings collapsing in the storms.
The UN and numerous aid agencies have accused Israel of not meeting its ceasefire obligations by continuing to restrict full access to basic supplies and equipment. Israel has said it is meeting its obligations in facilitating an increase in aid deliveries.
The Trump administration wants to see the ceasefire progress to its second phase in January, whereby a Palestinian technocratic government would be established alongside the deployment of an international security force, Hamas would disarm, Israeli troops would withdraw, and the reconstruction of the devastated territory would begin.
Critics have suggested that Netanyahu may instead seek to delay the progress of the ceasefire, saying he does not want to engage seriously with questions of a political future for Palestinians and will instead push for Hamas to fully disarm before Israeli troops withdraw from Gaza. Hamas officials have repeatedly said that its full disarmament should take place alongside progress towards an independent Palestinian state.
The 20-point peace plan promoted by Trump and signed by both Israel and Hamas recognises Palestinian aspirations to a sovereign state, however Netanyahu and his ministers have consistently rejected Palestinian statehood since the ceasefire came into effect in October.
Last week, Defence Minister Israel Katz said his country would build settlements in Gaza and would “never fully withdraw” from the territory even if Hamas disarms, despite this being a key tenet of the ceasefire deal.
Breaking out of the current impasse is seen as crucial by many in the region as near-daily deadly attacks by the Israeli military continue to take place in Gaza despite the declared ceasefire.
In the 80 days since it came into effect, at least 414 Palestinians have been killed by the Israeli military in the territory, according to its health ministry.
The Israeli military, which controls more than half of Gaza, has said it has only opened fire in response to ceasefire violations.
Three Israeli soldiers have been killed in attacks that the military has blamed on Hamas over the same period.
Israel also continues to wait for Hamas to return of the body of Ran Gvili, the last remaining dead hostage in Gaza. All living and decease hostages taken during the Hamas-led 7 October 2023 attacks on Israel, which sparked the war, should have been returned three days after the ceasefire came into effect.
Trump’s intervention and US mediation could be brought upon the fraught and unresolved sticking points, pushing Netanyahu to take a softer line on certain positions.
For instance, the Israeli government has opposed Turkey taking part in the International Stabilisation Force to be deployed in Gaza. However, few other countries have been willing to take part.
Netanyahu is also expected to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is seen as supportive of the positions of the Israeli government.
Last week, Israeli media reported that there may be an attempt by the prime minister to rediscuss Israel annexing the occupied West Bank – something President Trump has spoken against.
Israeli ministers have recently described their expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank as a de facto annexation of the territory aimed at burying the possibility of an independent Palestinian state.
Both the settlements and annexation are illegal under international law.
It is also expected that Netanyahu may use his meeting with Trump on Monday to seek US permission for further military strikes on Iran.
The Israeli government is said to believe Iran is rearming its missile capabilities after their 12-day war this summer, which saw Iran’s nuclear facilities bombed by both Israeli and US fighter jets.
The Iranian president said this weekend that said his country was in “all-out war” with Israel, the US and Europe. “They don’t want our country to remain stable,” Masoud Pezeshkian said.
