U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), dropped by 1.9 million barrels from the week ending October 16 to the week ending October 23.
That’s what the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted in its latest weekly petroleum status report, which was released on October 28 and included data for the week ending October 23.
Commercial crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, came in at 410.625 million barrels on October 23, 412.517 million barrels on October 16, and 415.966 million barrels on October 24, 2025, the report revealed. Crude oil stocks dropped by 0.5 percent week on week and by 1.3 percent year on year, the report outlined.
Crude oil in the SPR stood at 282.6 million barrels on October 23, 282.7 million barrels on October 16, and 409.1 million barrels on October 24, 2025, the report revealed. The October 24 figure represented a decrease of 0.1 million barrels, or 0.0 percent, week on week and a decrease of 126.5 million barrels, or 30.9 percent, year on year, the report highlighted.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.495 billion barrels on October 23, the report showed. Total petroleum stocks were down 3.1 million barrels week on week and down 182.7 million barrels year on year, the report revealed.
“Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million barrels, four percent below the five-year average,” the EIA noted in its latest weekly petroleum status report.
“Gasoline inventories increased 3.9 million barrels, two percent below the five-year average. Distillate inventories decreased 1.5 million barrels, 10 percent below the five-year average,” it added.
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“Propane/propylene inventories decreased 0.1 million barrels, 12 percent above the five-year average,” it continued.
For the week ending October 23, U.S. refineries “processed 16.5 million barrels per day, down 123,000 barrels per day from the previous week, at 92.8 percent capacity utilization,” the EIA revealed in the report.
“Gasoline output averaged 9.2 million barrels per day, and distillate production decreased to 5.2 million barrels per day,” it added.
Crude oil imports increased 616,000 barrels per day to 6.4 million barrels per day, according to the EIA, which pointed out that the four-week average of 6.3 million barrels per day is 9.3 percent above the year-ago level. Gasoline imports averaged 399,000 barrels per day and distillate imports averaged 157,000 barrels per day, the EIA revealed.
Over the past four weeks, total product supplied averaged 20.8 million barrels per day, according to the EIA’s latest report, which outlined that this was up 0.2 percent year over year.
“The four-week average for gasoline product supplied decreased 0.7 percent year over year to 8.6 million barrels per day, while the four-week average for distillate product supplied decreased 0.6 percent to 4.0 million barrels per day,” the EIA said.
“The four-week average for jet fuel product supplied decreased 3.5 percent year over year,” it added.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Thursday, Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets (ZCM) noted that Wednesday’s U.S. economic and petroleum inventory releases “provided important evidence of tightening crude supplies alongside uneven fuel consumption”.
“Commercial crude inventories declined by 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million barrels in the week ending October 23, compared with expectations for a modest 0.1 million barrel increase,” Aslam highlighted in the analysis.
The latest development marked a fourth consecutive weekly decline and left inventories approximately four percent below their five-year seasonal average, Aslam pointed out in the analysis.
“Cushing inventories fell by 624,000 barrels, while distillate inventories declined by approximately 1.5 million barrels to 102.8 million barrels, indicating continued tightness in diesel and heating oil supplies,” he said.
“However, gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased by 3.9 million barrels to 209.2 million barrels, against expectations for a decline, suggesting weaker near-term motor fuel demand,” he added.
“U.S. crude production also recovered to approximately 14 million barrels per day, while refinery utilization eased to 92.8 percent, reinforcing the mixed supply-demand picture,” he continued.
“Broader economic indicators showed September’s goods trade deficit widening to $134.9 billion from $132.1 billion, exceeding the $130.2 billion forecast, while imports increased 2.4 percent and exports advanced 2.6 percent,” he noted.
“Mortgage applications rose 3.4 percent after declining 5.3 percent, while advance retail inventories increased 0.3 percent to $885.3 billion and wholesale inventories advanced 0.6 percent to $1,011.5 billion,” he said.
Aslam outlined in the analysis that ZCM believes these figures “indicate resilient economic activity but uneven consumption, with unexpected gasoline inventory accumulation particularly important for assessing underlying oil demand”.
“Continued crude inventory declines could support prices, but sustained fuel stock increases would raise questions about whether physical consumption is strong enough to absorb available production,” he added.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on Monday, Macquarie strategists, including Macquarie oil and gas strategist Walt Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up by 3.9 million barrels for the week ending October 23.
“This follows a 3.1 million barrel draw for the week ending October 16, with last week’s crude draw realizing much smaller than our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.
“While our flows point to a substantially softer crude balance this week, given the disappointing draw in the prior week, we note some potential for a ‘catch-up’ to the tighter side this week,” they added.
“For this week’s crude balance, we look for a reduction in crude runs (-0.2 million barrels per day); at ~16.5 million barrels per day, this figure would still be up 1.3 million barrels per day over the same week last year, with last week’s print up 0.9 million barrels per day year on year,” they continued.
The strategists went on to note in the report that, “among net imports”, they modeled “a slight increase, with exports (+0.3 million barrels per day) and imports (+0.6 million barrels per day) up on a nominal basis”.
The Macquarie strategists highlighted in the report that the timing of cargoes remained a
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a bounce-back (+0.6 million barrels per day), with Gulf production recovered,” they added in the report.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a small SPR draw (-0.1 million barrels) for the week ending October 23,” they continued.
The strategists went on to outline in the report that, “among products”, they looked for a “gasoline draw (-1.4 million barrels), with distillate (+0.3 million barrels) and jet stocks (+0.1 million barrels) up slightly”.
“We model implied demand for these products at ~14.5 million barrels per day for the week ending 10/23,” the strategists highlighted.
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Andreas Exarheas
Editor | Rigzone
