New report highlights opportunities in AI, 5G, and satellite connectivity to bridge a 60% usage gap and unlock $170 Billion in GDP by 2030
7th November 2024, Nairobi – The mobile industry’s $140 billion contribution to GDP in 2023 is projected to reach $170 billion by 2030 if key connectivity barriers are addressed. These are insights from the flagship Mobile Economy Sub-Saharan Africa 2024 Reportunveiled by GSMA today. Mobile technology is essential in supporting development goals across key sectors like healthcare, education, and finance, driving economic growth by expanding internet access and digital services.
As digitalisation accelerates, the report highlights that 4G expansion is set to drive connectivity, projected to account for half of all connections by 2030. However, a significant coverage gap remains, with 13% of the population still unreached, and a 60% usage gap affecting those who live within coverage areas but face barriers to get online, such as unaffordable devices, limited digital skills, or online safety concerns.
In addition to these connectivity challenges, the region faces high operating costs, inflationary pressures, and energy price volatility. Despite these obstacles, emerging trends such as generative AI and satellite partnerships present innovative solutions to bridge gaps across sectors. Broader API solutions, such as GSMA Open Gateway, which recently launched security APIs in South Africa, are poised to enhance digital security and simplify services as these initiatives expand regionally. Addressing these issues is essential to unlocking the socio-economic potential of mobile connectivity in Sub-Saharan Africa.
“Our findings this year reveal both the extraordinary potential and the challenges facing Sub-Saharan Africa’s mobile ecosystem,” said Angela Wamola, Head of Sub-Saharan Africa, GSMA. “To fully realise the benefits of connectivity, it is essential for operators, policymakers, and stakeholders to address affordability barriers, support infrastructure expansion, and foster collaborations that drive digital inclusion and economic impact.”
Key Findings from the 2024 Report:
- Persistent Usage Gap: Mobile internet penetration in Sub-Saharan Africa reached 27% by the end of 2023, yet a substantial usage gap of 60% remains. This gap represents millions who live within network coverage but face barriers such as device affordability, digital skills deficits, and concerns around online security. Globally, 3.1 billion people – 39% of the global population – are impacted by the usage gap. Sub-Saharan Africa is the least connected region, with the largest usage gap worldwide.
- Expanding 4G Coverage and Early 5G Growth: The region’s 4G adoption is forecast to reach 50% by 2030, overtaking 3G as the primary technology. Although 5G adoption remains in its early stages, it is projected to reach 17% of total connections by 2030, primarily in South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya.
- Economic Impact and Infrastructure Needs for 5G: By 2030, 5G alone is expected to contribute $10 billion to the region’s economy, accounting for 6% of the mobile sector’s total economic impact. The report emphasises the need for progressive spectrum policies, particularly the release of mid-band spectrum, to support long-term growth and equitable digital access. Additionally, 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is gaining traction as a primary broadband solution in countries such as Angola, South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, addressing demand for high-speed connectivity in underserved areas.
- Strengthening Digital Security: South Africa became the first country in Sub-Saharan Africa to implement GSMA Open Gateway APIs, focusing on fraud prevention and security with Number Verification and SIM Swap APIs. This initiative is part of broader efforts across the region to improve digital security, particularly within digital banking.
- Generative AI Potential: Generative AI is expected to contribute up to $1.5 trillion to Africa’s economy by 2030, with mobile operators increasingly using AI for customer engagement and network optimization. MTN and Vodacom, for instance, are deploying AI-powered initiatives to enhance operational efficiency, although the region faces a shortage of skilled AI professionals.
The report advocates for a series of critical actions to ensure sustainable growth and digital inclusion:
- Affordability Reforms: High costs remain a barrier to mobile access, with the report calling for reduced taxes on the sector, such as lowering import duties on handsets and cutting activation fees, to make services affordable and accessible for all.
- Revitalised Universal Service Funds (USFs): Many USFs in Sub-Saharan Africa are underperforming, often hindered by inefficiencies. The report calls for reforms to improve transparency, streamline disbursements, and direct funds toward impactful initiatives, such as digital literacy programmes in underserved areas.
- Progressive Spectrum Policy: With increasing data demands, the report urges governments to release additional spectrum, particularly in the 6 GHz band, and to adopt policies that ensure efficient, affordable, and environmentally sustainable mobile network expansion.
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About GSMA The GSMA is a global organisation unifying the mobile ecosystem to discover, develop and deliver innovation foundational to positive business environments and societal change. Our vision is to unlock the full power of connectivity so that people, industry, and society thrive. Representing mobile operators and organisations across the mobile ecosystem and adjacent industries, the GSMA delivers for its members across three broad pillars: Connectivity for Good, Industry Services and Solutions, and Outreach. This activity includes advancing policy, tackling today’s biggest societal challenges, underpinning the technology and interoperability that make mobile work, and providing the world’s largest platform to convene the mobile ecosystem at the MWC and M360 series of events.
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