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Conflicts and disruptions to global energy markets could push millions more people into hunger by driving up fuel, fertiliser and food costs.
That is according to the head of the Rome-based International Fund for Agricultural Development (Ifad).
A new UN report released on Tuesday shows progress against hunger remains too slow to meet global targets. The UN food security report has found global hunger eased modestly in recent years, but it projected more than 500-million people could face chronic hunger by 2030. Africa is expected to bear the largest share of the burden.
In an interview with The Associated Press on July 10, Ifad president Alvaro Lario said geopolitical tensions and potential disruptions to shipping and energy supplies, including uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war, could leave an additional 9-million to 18-million people facing hunger if the shocks persist.
“We are in an era where we have the highest number of conflicts and they are increasing,” Lario said. “Whenever there is conflict, hunger, displacement and refugees increase.”
Conflict fuels food insecurity
Conflict remains one of the biggest obstacles to reducing hunger worldwide, Lario said.
Wars and geopolitical tensions can disrupt shipping, energy supplies and agricultural inputs, increasing costs across food systems already strained by inflation. Lario stressed hunger and conflict often reinforce one another, creating a cycle that is difficult to break without greater stability.
The biggest challenge is no longer simply producing enough food, but making healthy diets affordable
— Alvaro Lario, Ifad president
Higher energy prices are affecting fertilisers and agricultural production, he said. The impact is especially significant for small-scale farmers, many of whom rely on diesel fuel to pump water, harvest crops and transport goods to market.
Rising fuel costs increase production expenses and can feed directly into higher food prices.
Climate shocks add pressure
The new report identifies affordability as one of the world’s biggest food security challenges. While food production continues to grow, about one third of the global population can’t afford a healthy diet. In low-income countries, that figure rises to about 77%
“The biggest challenge is no longer simply producing enough food, but making healthy diets affordable,” he said.
Climate change is adding further pressure to food systems and rural livelihoods.
Lario said floods, prolonged droughts and extreme heat are increasingly disrupting agriculture around the world and have become a common reality for many communities.
Governments should focus on resilience and adaptation before disasters strike, rather than relying solely on emergency responses afterward, he said.
“This is becoming the new normal,” Lario said. “We are seeing floods in many countries. We’re seeing droughts that have been expanding for four or five years.”
The fund is increasing investments in climate-adaptation programmes aimed at helping rural communities withstand floods, droughts and extreme heat, he said, arguing support is urgently needed for the millions of small farmers who produce much of the world’s food.
Africa emerges as the epicentre
The report highlights Africa as the world’s most pressing food security challenge. For the first time, the continent has overtaken Asia as the region with the largest number of hungry people, and nearly 60% of the world’s chronically undernourished people could live there by 2030.
Lario attributed the shift partly to rapid population growth and slower economic gains than in parts of Asia, and he called for greater investment in agriculture, infrastructure and food systems.
African countries import nearly $100bn (R1.6-trillion) worth of food each year, he said, underscoring the need for stronger local production, storage, distribution and regional trade networks.
Conflicts, energy-market disruptions and climate extremes threaten to derail progress unless governments invest in more resilient food systems, Lario said.
