Economic reforms lift sub-Saharan Africa’s sovereign ratings: Fitch

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Economic reforms lift sub-Saharan Africa‘s sovereign ratings: Fitch

Insights

• Fitch Ratings says reforms and favourable external financing are supporting many sub-Saharan African sovereigns amid a volatile global environment.
• Growth is stable, inflation moderate and external buffers supported by commodity prices, remittances and financing access.
• Fitch forecasts a median primary fiscal surplus in 2026; ratings are at their highest since the pandemic.

Economic reforms and generally favourable access to external financing are supporting the resilience of many sub-Saharan African sovereigns despite heightened geopolitical tensions and a volatile global environment, Fitch Ratings has said in a new report.

Growth across the region is broadly stable, with economic activity increasingly supported by a more diverse range of growth drivers. Higher oil prices have created some inflationary pressure, but inflation remains moderate by historical standards and is being contained through tighter monetary policy in many countries.

Higher prices for several commodity exports, continued remittance inflows, and access to concessional financing and foreign portfolio investment have helped limit pressure on external buffers. Greater exchange-rate flexibility in several sovereigns has also improved the region’s capacity to absorb external shocks, Fitch said.

Fitch Ratings says reforms and favourable external financing are supporting many sub-Saharan African sovereigns amid a volatile global environment.
Growth is stable, inflation moderate and external buffers supported by commodity prices, remittances and financing access.
Fitch forecasts a median primary fiscal surplus in 2026; ratings are at their highest since the pandemic.

Fiscal performance is continuing to strengthen as governments pursue revenue-enhancing measures and spending rationalisation. Fitch forecasts that the median sovereign in the region will record a primary fiscal surplus in 2026, an uncommon outcome historically, supporting a continued decline in government debt-to-GDP ratios.

Upcoming elections in several key sovereigns, along with growing political and social activism among younger populations, could test the durability of reform momentum.

The region’s rating profile has continued to improve despite the challenging external backdrop. The average sovereign rating is now at its highest level since the pandemic, with four upgrades and two downgrades over the past 12 months.

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