Croatia and Ghana will clash in Group L to decide who joins England into the 2026 World Cup knockout stage
England missed out on the chance to top the group with a game to spare when they were held to a drab goalless draw by Ghana last time out, but will be expected to seal first place against already-eliminated Panama after having their progression confirmed by results elsewhere
Everything is still all to play for between Croatia and Ghana, though, with it very much possible that both progress to the round of 32
Their match will kick-off simultaneously with England’s at 10pm on Saturday 27 June, which could allow for some seismic shifts in the standings if Panama do manage to stun Thomas Tuchel’s men
Here’s everything you need to know about Group L’s knockout round permutations:
What do Croatia need to qualify?
Croatia will feel they must avoid defeat to progress to ensure they don’t suffer an early elimination from this year’s tournament, which would act as a damning fall from grace following a semi-final finish in 2022 and a stunning run to the final in 2018
A win will see them leapfrog Ghana into second while a draw will be enough for them to finish among the eight-best third-placed teams
What do Ghana need to qualify?
Ghana are already into the round of 32 after racking up four points from their first two games, meaning they will at the very least go through in third. Any result other than defeat, however, will ensure they finish in the top two
If they manage to record a heavy win over Croatia and England don’t do the same against Panama, then they may even top the group. That would be an attractive proposition given that Portugal may await Group L’s runner-up
Head-to-head prominence over goal difference
If teams finish on the same number of points their standing in the group will be determined by the head-to-head record against the nation they are level with. If one team tied on points with another has beaten them in the group stage, the winners will finish higher up the table
Where multiple teams are level on points, a mini-league is created, removing the results against the remaining teams. Those tied teams are ranked by points won in the games involving each other, then by goal difference, followed by goals scored. If that does not split them, the next criteria is goal difference followed by goals scored for the group overall
Any other tiebreakers?
If teams are still level on points following head-to-head results, goal difference and goals scored then the Team Conduct Score (TCS) comes into play. It is basically a fair play score and is rated based on the amount of cards a team has collected. Each team, including managers and backroom staff, started on zero and were deducted points throughout the group stage as follows:
- Yellow card -1
- Red card for two yellows -3
- Straight red card -4
- Yellow then straight red -5
The closer to zero, the better the score. If the teams are still level, whoever had the higher Fifa ranking in June’s published update will go through
How are the top eight third place finishers determined?
The top eight third place finishers will be decided on which teams have accumulated the most points
Should eight or more nations finish third with the same number of points, the nations who progress will then be determined by goal difference
In all likelihood, teams that finish third with four points or higher will go through, the teams on three points will need the best possible goal difference to progress
