Analysis
Iran seeks to tighten control over strait of Hormuz alongside Khamenei funeral
Patrick Wintourin Tehran
IRGC warnings force ships to turn back as Tehran uses passages from Qur’an to send messages to Gulf delegations
The diplomatic and military contest for control of the strait of Hormuz has intensified alongside the dramatic scenes of mourning for the death of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, with some claiming Khamenei’s legacy ultimately depends on Tehran’s grip on the waterway, and so the global economy
Over the past 48 hours, as crowds have swirled in Tehran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps appeared to have started to plug a gaping and growing gap in their monopoly control of the strait
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A large number of ships stuck in the strait for weeks had last week started to use a US-backed southern route close to the shores of Oman to break free, leaving Iran controlling the less-used and more-mined northern route
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, upped the stakes on Thursday by announcing the go-ahead for plans agreed with the UK to send a mine-clearing naval force to clear the southern route, a plan that was rejected by the Iranian foreign ministry as unwarranted and unjustified interference
But on Saturday at least eight ships turned around after direct IRGC warnings. The flow of ships on Sunday dropped further. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre also said a vessel in the Red Sea sent a distress signal after it was attacked by “unknown armed assailants” off the coast of the Yemeni port city Hodeidah. UKMTO said authorities were investigating the incident
The shipping monitor Marine Traffic said its data showed 38 confirmed crossings through the strait of Hormuz on 2 July, a 10% day-on-day decline. Iranian-flagged activity rose sharply to 11 crossings from two the previous day, while nine sanctioned crossings were also observed. “Route selection shifted towards the Iranian and Dark or Unknown corridors, as Omani route use weakened,” the organisation said
Oil prices have fallen by as much as 40% from a high of $125 (£93) a barrel to about $75 a barrel, a figure that lessens the inflationary impact on western economies, and reflects the growing availability of oil on world markets
The memorandum of understanding signed digitally on 17 June by the US and Iran required Tehran to use its best endeavours to restore traffic to levels before the blockade
Iran also agreed it would not seek to impose tolls for 60 days. The memorandum is proving to be a loose guideline of objectives as opposed to a rigid set of enforceable rules on which both sides rely
Last week Oman held talks with Iran, and with France and the UK, over future governance of the strait. Oman has a plan based on the strait of Malacca to charge optional navigational fees for specific services including safety, docking, route guidance and environmental protection. The plan appears to have the broad support of the International Maritime Organisation, and some European states say it may be hard to reject fees as long as the scheme is similar to the one operational in the strait of Malacca.
A recent Indonesian suggestion that it could charge tolls in the strait of Malacca led to a torrent of criticism, and underlined the risk of Iran setting a precedent in the strait of Hormuz. The international law of the sea permits tolls on constructed canals such as the Panama and Suez canals – built as commercial infrastructure within a single state’s territory. Natural straits are exempt from this provision
Donald Trump has accepted that talks between the US and Iran will not resume until Khamenei’s funeral is over, but the clock is ticking towards the 60-day deadline, when the ceasefire would have to be renewed by mutual consent. Both sides are using the ceasefire to strengthen their military positions, contrary to the US commitment in the memorandum to withdraw forces from the immediate vicinity. The US appears to be building its forces in Jordan
An Iranian army spokesperson said: “We have repeatedly announced that we are using the ceasefire opportunity to enhance our combat capabilities and have not wasted a single moment nor been negligent.”
Separately, at the funeral in Tehran, Iran sent a subtle but unmistakeable message to visiting Gulf delegations by using passages from the Qur’an as they arrived to pay their respects to the former supreme leader
When the Saudi delegation stepped forward to pay respects, a passage was read describing the battle of Badr, fought in 624 in what is now Saudi Arabia, in which one side fought in the cause of God and the other as disbelievers. The passage added: “Allah supports with victory whom he wills,” implying there would be consequences if Saudi chose to support US attacks on Iran
Qatar was given a message of forgiveness. Tehran chose a verse from Surah al-Fath: “That Allah may forgive you for what preceded of your sin and what will follow and complete his favour upon you and guide you to a straight path …”
The message appeared to be that Doha needed to realise its “sin” of supporting the western powers
A subtle rebuke was directed at Turkey’s reluctance to pay any economic cost for supporting Iran. The Turkish delegation was treated to Surah an-Nisa, verse 95, which says: “Allah has preferred the mujahideen over those who remain behind with a great reward.”
The Lebanese Hezbollah movement was paired with a passage of unstinting praise. The reciter read a verse from Surah al-Ma’idah, the fifth chapter of the Qur’an, that includes the phrase “party of Allah”, from which Hezbollah takes its name: “And whoever takes Allah and his messenger and those who have believed as allies – then indeed, the party of Allah will be the victors.”
The United Arab Emirates did not send a condolence delegation
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