ASU professor examining how and where non-native grasses can increase fire potential
Buffelgrass, which is native to Africa, Asia and the Middle East, was brought to arid areas of the United States in the 1930s to be planted for cattle forage and erosion control. Today, the invasive grass species is the most likely to cause significant wildfire damage. Photo by iStock/
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Associate Professor Fabio Albuquerque is using climate projections, geographical information system modeling and ecological modeling as part of a statewide team that is hoping to mitigate wildfire risk.
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The team’s work is part of a three-year project funded by an ABOR grant that involves all three of Arizona’s public state universities.
It has been called the archenemy of the Sonoran Desert: Buffelgrass, which is native to Africa, Asia and the Middle East, was brought to arid areas of the United States in the 1930s to be planted for cattle forage and erosion control.
Today, the invasive grass species is the most likely to cause significant wildfire damage. But it’s not the only one.
“One of the problems we have in science is that we don’t know a lot about how many species we have in the environment,” said Fabio Albuquerque, an associate professor in Arizona State University’s College of Integrative Sciences and Arts.
“And even species that we know, we don’t know exactly their geographical location. So we have a lot of gaps in knowledge. And this is not only in Arizona. This is kind of globally.”
Albuquerque said that lack of knowledge makes it difficult to project where wildfires could erupt.
“If you want to address a solution for a problem, the first thing that you need to know is where they (the invasive species) are,” he said.
Albuquerque is part of a statewide team that includes the Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management and researchers from Northern Arizona University and the University of Arizona that was awarded a Regents’ Grant from the Arizona Board of Regents to identify treatments that will help protect Arizona’s desert systems from wildfires.
His role in the three-year project consists of identifying areas where non-native grasses and other invasive species are increasing fire potential. The research is building on his work on climate change, invasive species and Sonoran Desert ecology, including how buffelgrass and other invasive grasses create conditions that make wildfires more frequent and severe.
Albuquerque will use climate projections, geographical information system modelingGIS modeling integrates spatial locations with data to help solve geographical problems and predict outcomes and ecological modeling to try to identify where invasive grasses are most likely to establish.
“What happens is every time we have wet seasons, the more water we have, the more likely it is we have vegetation,” he said. “Eventually, after the rain, these species dry out, and in the event of a fire spark, the likelihood of a wildfire is pretty high. So we are compiling right now a list of at least the most invasive species, like buffelgrass, that are related with the frequency of wildfires to map their distribution and therefore provide kind of a risk analysis.”
The project is an extension of ABOR’s Future of Arizona wildfire convening held in 2025 at the University of Arizona’s Biosphere 2 in Oracle. That meeting brought together the board, representatives from Arizona’s three state public universities, and state, federal, tribal, fire and industry leaders.
“This investment reflects the board’s commitment to using our public universities’ expertise to protect Arizona’s land and strengthen our ability to fight wildfires,” ABOR Chair Doug Goodyear said. “We’ve seen how costly and devastating these fires can be. This research will support the people on the front lines and help safeguard communities that are exposed to fires all across Arizona.”
That’s something CISA interim Dean Manuel Aviles-Santiago is enthused about.
“The community wants to see what the role of the university is in their community and in their practical lives,” Aviles-Santiago said. “A lot of research is done behind closed doors. This is a community-facing, forward kind of research. The public impact will be much more visible.”
Albuquerque said the goal of his work — which he stressed is a “probability model,” as opposed to being able to specifically predict where invasive grasses will grow — is to inform fire officials, state agencies and land managers and to help them prioritize monitoring and fuel treatments.
“Wildfires are becoming way more frequent. They are causing a lot of damage,” Albuquerque said. “It’s catastrophic. What we hope with this is to provide some sort of hope.”
FacultySchool of Applied Sciences and ArtsSDG 15 Life on LandStaffCommunityEcologyScience and technologyCommunity involvementScienceResearchArizona Board of RegentsCollege of Integrative Sciences and Arts
Faculty, School of Applied Sciences and Arts, SDG 15 Life on Land, Staff, Community, Ecology, Science and technology, Community involvement, Science, Research, Arizona Board of Regents, College of Integrative Sciences and Arts
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