South Africa manufactures a variety of components and inputs for renewable energy, says GreenCape.
South Africa’s private renewable energy developments are expected to increase by 6GW for solar photovoltaic (PV) and 3.5GW for wind power by 2030.
The investment value of these technologies is R72 billion for solar PV and R60 billion for wind power projects by 2030. The total investment value for this opportunity is R132 billion by 2030, or R26.4 billion per year.
This is according to GreenCape’s 2025 market intelligence reports (MIRs), which identify key developments in South Africa’s large-scale renewable energy, energy services and electric vehicles.
The non-profit organisation (NPO) points out that the reports highlight the most promising investment opportunities in key renewable energy sectors in South Africa. The reports are published in partnership with the UK’s Partnering for Accelerated Climate Transitions programme.
Antony Phillipson, British high commissioner in SA, says: “South Africa’s renewable energy priorities are not just about addressing energy needs but also about driving more sustainable economic development for the country, and for the continent.
“By embracing sustainable energy solutions, investing in local manufacturing and prioritising clean energy access, South Africa can build a more resilient, sustainable and inclusive economy. The UK is committed to working in partnership with South Africa to deliver this ambition.”
GreenCape notes that private power purchase agreements and wheeling have grown rapidly in the country.
It points out that with about 80GW of renewables under development, the race is on to access grid connections, build out collector grids and access wheeling contracts.
The 2025 large-scale renewable energy MIR expects that about 32GW of these 80GWs currently in development in SA will be grid connected by 2030.
According to the reports, the key barriers to unlocking the private large-scale renewable energy market in SA are grid capacity constraints, uncertainty around Eskom unbundling and reform, as well as risks associated with private power purchase agreements.
It says overcoming these barriers has the potential to unlock further investment in large-scale renewable energy.
The NPO points out that SA manufactures a variety of components and inputs for renewable energy.
This, as the South African government is actively working towards further localisation of renewable energy manufacturing.
“Special economic zones, the South African Renewable Energy Masterplan and a range of incentives underpin the Just Energy Transition Implementation Plan’s focus on local manufacturing. With further market certainty, manufacturing for the renewable energy sector is expected to grow by 2030,” GreenCape notes.
It adds that with approximately 3.2GW of behind-the-meter (BTM) batteries already installed in the commercial, industrial and agricultural (CI&A) market, and a further 2GW of new installations expected by 2030, there is an opportunity to unlock the value stack of BTM batteries.
Demand response, peak shaving and tariff arbitrage are all nascent cases for batteries, and the MIR expects that these will be influential by 2030.
“South Africa’s energy services market for the CI&A market segment continues to grow, driven by factors other than load-shedding,” says GreenCape.
“These drivers increasingly include goals such as cost savings, price stability, enhanced energy security in response to infrastructure challenges, and decarbonisation. Embedded solar PV installations, along with BTM energy storage solutions in the CI&A sectors, are expected to remain attractive investment opportunities in the short- to medium-term.”
The organisation explains that there are potential investment opportunities in project development, installation and asset management for embedded solar PV systems for applications in the CI&A sectors.
Between 2023 and 2024, it notes, the embedded generation sector achieved a 25% compound growth, adding over 2GW to the total installed capacity, the largest annual increase to date.
Embedded solar PV development in the CI&A space is expected to grow by 3.8GW by 2030.
“The investment value of this growth is estimated as R53.2 billion. With the reduction in load-shedding, the growth trend is expected to stabilise at an average of 760MW, or R10 billion per year.
“As the rollout of embedded generation continues, it is anticipated that the challenges faced by distribution operators will continue and potentially intensify, with complexities associated with managing the grid in areas with a high level of embedded generation penetration becoming increasingly prevalent.”
