A brewing succession battle is emerging as influential Northern figures position themselves for the post-2027 political landscape.
While Nigeria’s political class is currently focused on the immediate 2027 presidential election, a more significant contest for the presidency after Bola Tinubu’s tenure is quietly developing.
Some prominent candidates for the 2027 election are using the campaign to enhance their national profiles and strengthen their political networks. Concurrently, other influential Northern politicians are strategically preparing for the eventual succession, suggesting that many political actors are already looking ahead to 2031.
According to analysts, the succession struggle has effectively commenced with the decision of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to vie for the 2027 presidency under the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
This candidacy, as challenges the established political norm of power rotation between the North and the South, indicating that the North is unwilling to passively await the presidency’s return to the region following President Bola Tinubu’s potential second term
Should Atiku fail to defeat Tinubu in 2027, analysts anticipate that the 2031 presidential race could become considerably more competitive, given the expectation that the presidency would conventionally revert to the North after Tinubu completes his eight years in office.
Indeed, early strategic positioning is already apparent. Observations suggest that prospective contenders are forging alliances, broadening their national recognition, and in some cases, working to place loyal political associates and protégés in key positions.
Leading up to the party primaries in April and May, some prominent political figures were already devising strategies to install their allies and loyalists in crucial roles, a calculated move to build the support base necessary for their eventual presidential aspirations.
For many of these politicians, the 2027 elections are viewed not just as an opportunity to win offices, but also as a means to secure the political structures, networks, and loyalists essential for powering a presidential bid four years later.
Vice President Kashim Shettima and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the vice presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), are among those whose current roles could significantly influence their 2031 presidential ambitions.
However, political analyst Jackson Ojo has stated that Shettima’s prospects for a 2031 presidential run will largely depend on whether Atiku wins the 2027 election and commits to a single term.
In a telephone conversation with BusinessDay, Ojo noted that Shettima would have been out of office for four years by 2031 if Atiku were to defeat President Tinubu in 2027, but cautioned that Northern calculations for the next presidential succession might be premature.
“I believe Shettima will be out of the Presidential Villa by May 29, 2027, if Atiku takes over. He would have been out of office for at least four years as a retired politician by 2031, but not a tired one.
Therefore, the northern calculation depends on whether Atiku promises to serve only one term. If he does, somebody from northern Nigeria, either the North-East or North-West, could begin to position himself to succeed him.
But if Atiku remains strong in office, mentally and physically, he will definitely serve two terms. So, for anybody in the North already calculating for 2031, I think it is too early to say,” he commented.
Regarding Atiku’s chances, Ojo stated, “I don’t want to discuss what happens if Atiku is unable to win the presidential race in 2027 because I am too sure he is going to win.
If Nigerians do not want to die of poverty and penury, and if they want corruption to be buried forever, then there is no way Atiku will not win. Look at what is happening in the country; poverty, corruption and everything else. Do you think God in heaven wants His people to continue suffering like this? His people must now go to the Promised Land. Atiku is the hope of this generation.”
Among the politicians whose 2027 roles are said to be pivotal for their 2031 prospects is Shettima.
A banker who transitioned into politics, Shettima previously served as a commissioner in various Borno state ministries before his tenure as governor from 2011 to 2019. He later represented Borno Central in the Senate before becoming Tinubu’s running mate in the 2023 presidential election.
His extensive experience as a commissioner, governor, senator, and vice president has provided him with a broad political background and a national platform that few Northern politicians currently possess. Observers suggest that a second-term victory alongside Tinubu could further enhance his standing and position him centrally in the post-Tinubu succession discussions.
