A new Brussels study highlights the pace at which EU countries are ageing. A more informed public debate is overdue
Europe is ageing at pace as birthrates fall and people live longer. A new report by the European Commission, published this month, notes that 2012 marked the first year in which fewer people were born in EU countries than people died in them. By the middle of this century, nearly one in three EU residents will be 65 or older. The numbers of those over 80 will almost triple from 6% to 15%. The old continent is getting visibly greyer.
The transition to a “longevity society”, as the report’s authors describe it, is something to be celebrated. Many people are enjoying healthier, richer lives for longer, and redefining the meaning and possibilities of old age. But the statistics and direction of travel also point to immense social challenges, with implications for the way we work, intergenerational fairness and the future funding of care. Sadly, amid fraught and at times toxic debates about immigration and the cost of welfare, Europe’s politics is struggling to meet the moment.
A relative decline in the size of the working-age population underlines the crucial role that non-EU migrants will continue to play in easing demographic pressures. The zero-net-migration future dreamed of by far-right parties would leave the EU’s population an estimated 32% smaller by 2100, dramatically increasing the fiscal burden on those in work. Yet mainstream politicians avoid highlighting this inconvenient truth, and devoting the necessary resources to fostering integration, while competing with the far right to create an ever more hostile environment for asylum seekers.
On welfare, the framing of the debate is increasingly dominated by the idea that Europe’s postwar social model – conceived in an era of population growth – is no longer affordable. That is a politically dangerous calculation. Since the 2008 crash, resentment at austerity programmes introduced across Europe has been instrumental in the rise of the authoritarian populism which imperils the EU’s democratic values and social fabric. In deeply unequal societies, the message that the less well-off will simply have to work harder and longer for less will further fuel the politics of the far right.
The argument for more cuts is also economically flawed. Future growth and productivity in demographically challenged communities will depend on making it easier for more people to participate in a flexible and accessible labour market. From the reform of social care to offering affordable childcare and sustained help for the long-term unemployed, that will require renewed investment to unlock dormant potential. The related issue of rural depopulation and decline will also need to be addressed, as the young increasingly gravitate to cities in search of opportunities that can no longer be found where they grew up.
The factors underlying what is a global fertility crisis are complex. But this is a problem that is here to stay. In Europe, public policies designed to increase the birthrate have signally failed to shift the dial, and the European Commission’s study indicates that the pace of demographic change is quicker than anticipated. Nevertheless, beyond controversies over changes to retirement ages, the long-term consequences and implications continue to fly under the radar.
A bigger, more high-profile debate is overdue. It cannot be left to younger generations to pick up the pieces of a broken social model which should have been renewed and redesigned while we had the chance.
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